POTM Blog
San Francisco Real Estate Blog
Paulo's data-backed notes on the San Francisco market: buyer strategy, seller timing, neighborhoods, condos and TICs, cash buyers, and the AI-era economy. New POTM Blog issues drop about twice a week, built on the same governed MLS data as Paulo's Pulse App. No hype, no fear.
Latest · POTM Blog Issue #11 · July 17, 2026
After the Overbid
Issue #10 took June's million-over headline apart: real, narrow, three districts, cash, priced in. This issue asks the more useful question: what do buyers do after losing to that market five times? They do not leave. They adapt. Here is where that adaptation already shows up in the data, where it does not yet, and what "spillover" honestly means.
Quick read: The overbid story now runs one tier below the trophy core: Sunset and Parkside houses cleared 146.8% of list on a strong sample, while spillover stays observed, not proven.
Read the issue ›Start here
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POTM Blog Issue #11 · July 17, 2026
After the Overbid
Quick read: The overbid story now runs one tier below the trophy core: Sunset and Parkside houses cleared 146.8% of list on a strong sample, while spillover stays observed, not proven.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #10 · July 14, 2026
A Million Over Asking
Quick read: The $1M-over-asking wave is real, but it is a trophy-house story in three districts, powered by cash and inflated by pricing.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #09 · July 11, 2026
The Mid-Year Mark
Quick read: At the 2026 halfway mark, houses posted their most competitive first half on record while condos stayed in the patient lane.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #08 · July 5, 2026
The Luxury Exception
Quick read: Over a full year the $5M+ top looks calm; in the last 90 days it heated up, and cash did the winning.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #07 · June 30, 2026
The Two-Speed Market
Quick read: Houses cleared about 124% of list over the last 90 days while condos held near 101%. Two markets, one city.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #06 · June 25, 2026
The Missing Middle
Quick read: The fiercest bidding wars are in the $1.5M to $3M middle, not at the bottom or the top of the price ladder.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #05 · June 21, 2026
Who's Paying Cash
Quick read: About a third of San Francisco homes sold for cash over the last year, and the share climbs with price.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #04 · June 17, 2026
The Spring Acceleration
Quick read: Houses sped into summer at about 123% of list with a median up roughly 26% in a year; condos held near 100%.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #03 · June 13, 2026
Where the Overbids Are
Quick read: Citywide, homes sold at about 103.6% of list, but that average hides a 33-point spread between neighborhoods.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #02 · June 10, 2026
The Condo Turn
Quick read: Compass's June report headlines another single-family record; the quieter story is the condo turn underneath it.
Read the issue ›POTM Blog Issue #01 · June 7, 2026
The AI-Era Spring Market
Quick read: One of the strongest springs in years, with the heat concentrated in houses and the cash-heavy luxury tier.
Read the issue ›Go deeper
For the short, current read on the market and the local economy, see the Market Pulse. To explore supply, competition, and prices by neighborhood, district, and property type, open Paulo's Pulse App. Practical how-to guides live on the Resources page.
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