San Francisco Housing Market in Numbers, October 2026

September's record ended on a question. Nearly every closing in it was agreed before the Fed's September 16 hike, so the month could not say what a 7% mortgage does to a market selling houses at 129% of asking. October can. The 30-year rate crossed 7% in the last week of September, averaged 7.28% in the first week of October and 7.40% in the second and third, and most of the contracts behind this month's closings were written at it.

This is the third edition of In Numbers, the monthly record. One month per edition, published the first week of the following month, on the same governed MLS data as Paulo's Pulse. The numbered POTM Blog issues say what the numbers mean. This series is the numbers.

1. Houses: the biggest October overbid in ten years, at 7%

Single-family houses closed at a median 126.5% of asking in October, on 249 sales. In the ten Octobers since 2016 the previous high was 114.5%, in 2021; no other October reached 115%. The other two bidding-war numbers agree: 73% of houses cleared asking by 10% or more, and 7% sold under asking. Last October those were 57% and 15%.

Against September the overbid gave up two points, from 128.8% to 126.5%. That is the hike's whole mark on the house price. Median $2,380,000, median $1,310 per square foot, up 29% and 28% on the year, on a house about 5% larger than last October's (1,922 square feet against 1,829). A small part of the median is size. The per-foot gain is not.

Houses: the biggest October overbid in ten years, at a 7% mortgage Median sale price of single-family houses as percentage points over the asking price, for every house that closed in October, 2016 to 2026. The prior peak, 2021, was 14.5 points on 310 sales; 2026 is 26.5 on 249. San Francisco MLS via POTM Command.

The clock held at 12 days to contract, against 13 last October. The market did not slow down for the rate. It got thinner, which is the rest of this record.

2. Condos set their own October high

Across all 590 governed closings, the median home sold at 113.7% of asking in 13 days, against 103.0% and 16 days a year ago. 64% of sales were in contract within two weeks (45% last October); 8% took more than 60 days (17%). Median price $1,897,500 and $1,184 per square foot, against $1,500,000 and $945.

Condos and townhouses sold at a median 105.9% of asking in 13 days on 252 sales, against exactly asking in 24 days last October. That is the highest October sale-to-list for condos in the ten we track; the prior high was 105.3% in 2018. The share selling under asking fell from 41% to 15%. Median $1,330,000, $1,178 per square foot, up 11% and 15%.

The condo caveat still holds. August through October, South Beach (65 sales), South of Market and Yerba Buena all sold at exactly asking, Yerba Buena in 55 days; Mission Bay just over, at 102% in 11 days. Noe Valley condos sold at 122%. Issue #27 graded the corridor in detail; nothing in October changes the grade.

TICs: median $1,350,000 on 30 sales, 111% of asking in 13 days, against asking in 19 days. Two-to-four unit buildings: median $2,500,000 on 59 sales, up 20% on the year, 107% of asking in 19 days.

3. Where asking price still means asking price

Price band	Sale-to-list, Oct 2026	Oct 2025	Sales	Cash share
Under $1M	100%, at asking	100%	111	20%
$1M to $1.5M	114%	104%	99	29%
$1.5M to $2M	118%	108%	105	37%
$2M to $3M	125%	112%	133	38%
$3M to $5M	119%	102%	95	47%
$5M and up	111%	100%	47	86%

Under $1,000,000 is still the only band where the list price is the price: 111 sales, 19% of the month, against 138 and 21% a year ago. Sales under $1.5 million fell from 49% of October to 36%. Sales at $2 million and up rose from 31% to 47%, and the $5 million band went from 29 sales to 47, six in seven of them cash. The band that lost the most ground on the year is $1 million to $1.5 million, 99 sales against 184: the first jumbo band, and the one Issue #25 said the rate would reach first.

Fifty-one homes sold $1 million or more over asking in October, the most of any month this year, and the year stands at 279 through November 3. Issue #28 has the ten-year comparison and the map.

4. The west side still writes the wildest numbers

August through October, Outer Sunset sold at a median 144% of asking on 20 sales. Outer Parkside and Central Sunset 137%. Parkside 135%, Inner Sunset 134%, Glen Park 131%, Inner Richmond 131%, Central Richmond 124% on 42 sales. In October alone the Central Richmond's 17 sales went at a median $2,480,000 and 124% of asking in 10 days. District 2, the Sunset and Parkside, sold at 140% of asking across the three months, the highest of the ten districts. As Issue #17 argued, on the west side the list price is an opening bid; read the closed prices and set your ceiling from those.

Price per square foot against the same three months of 2025: District 1, the Richmond, +36% to $1,192; District 7 (Pacific Heights, the Marina) +30% to $1,481; District 5 (Noe, the Castro, the Haight) +26% to $1,316; District 4 +23%; Districts 2 and 6 +19% and +20%; Districts 8 and 9 +15% and +14%; Districts 3 and 10 +10%. Every district is a Strong read, 56 to 341 sales.

5. The thinnest October shelf on record

At the end of October, SFAR counted 204 houses for sale, down from 227 at the end of September and 26% below last October's 276. 452 condos and townhouses, up from 426 and 22% below last year's 580. Together, 656 against 856, 23% fewer, and the fewest of any October in the SFAR series, which starts in 2005. Months of supply: houses 1.0, condos 2.1, against 1.5 and 3.0 a year ago.

The shelf: homes for sale at the end of October, 2016 to 2026 Single-family houses plus condos and townhouses for sale in San Francisco County at the end of each October. SFAR InfoSparks, monthly inventory of active listings, read November 2, 2026. 2026 is the lowest October in the series, which starts in 2005.

Fewer homes, fewer deals: closed sales fell to 494 from 540 last October, 9% fewer, and rose from 383 in September. Contracts written did not fall. Houses pending ran 268 against 249, condos 269 against 247, and InfoSparks restates its newest month, so read those as directional. The demand that stayed is more than the shelf can carry. Cash paid for 37% of sales with reported financing, against 30% last October; houses 39% against 27%.

What October tells you about the hike

Freddie Mac's weekly 30-year average ran 6.95% the week of the hike, 7.03% the week after, 7.28% on October 1, 7.40% on October 8 and 15, and 7.32% on October 22. A year earlier it was 6.19%. A 12-day market closes about a month after it goes into contract, so most of this month's closings were agreed in late September and early October, at or near 7%.

The answer, so far: the hike took two points off the house overbid and nothing off the price. It took 9% off the number of closings, on a shelf that lost 23%. It raised the cash share seven points. Issue #25 showed that the last hike, in 2022, took its cost from the financed buyer first, above all the jumbo borrower between $1 million and $3 million, while cash sales fell by far less; October reads like the opening of that pattern, on a far emptier shelf. One month is one month. November closings, written entirely at the new rate, are the second reading, and the next edition will give it either way.

What it means for November

If you are selling a house: October's closed prices were set at a 7% mortgage, and they are the highest this market has produced. Price to the neighborhood's closed numbers, not to September's, and expect a smaller crowd that bids the same way. A fall house that sits past three weeks still sells at asking; Issue #24's clock has not changed.

If you are buying: under $1 million the market still negotiates, and the $1 million to $1.5 million band closed 46% fewer sales than a year ago and still ran 114% of asking, so fewer rivals did not mean a cheaper win. Between $2 million and $3 million, plan for 125%, not the list price. If you are financing, the rate lock is the offer; get it before the open house, not after.

If you are deciding whether to sell at all: nothing here says you must. These numbers describe the market that just closed. They do not make the decision for you.

Three October sales worth knowing

20 Cherry Street, Presidio Heights. Listed at $18,500,000, closed at $28,500,000 in 10 days, cash: $10 million over asking, the largest dollar overbid and the largest sale of the month.
2162 14th Avenue, Golden Gate Heights. Listed at $1,195,000, closed at $2,361,000 in 14 days, cash: 198% of asking, the largest percentage overbid of the month among houses and condos. Note the list price.
146 7th Avenue, Lake. A condo listed at $2,195,000, closed at $4,050,000 in 9 days, cash: $1.9 million over asking, the largest condo overbid of the month.

By the numbers

Measure	October 2026	October 2025
Houses and condos for sale, end of month (SFAR)	656	856, down 23.4%
Months of supply, houses / condos (SFAR)	1.0 / 2.1	1.5 / 3.0
Pending sales, houses / condos (SFAR, directional)	268 / 269	249 / 247
Closed sales (SFAR)	494	540
Governed closes in the POTM set (through Nov 3)	590	659
30-year mortgage, Freddie Mac weekly, mid-month	7.40%	6.19%
Median price, all types	$1,897,500	$1,500,000
Median $/sf, all types	$1,184	$945
Median sale-to-list, all types	113.7%	103.0%
Median days on market	13	16
Sold within 14 days	64% of sales	45%
Sold over asking	76% of sales	59%
Sold 10%+ over asking	55% of sales	35%
Cash share (reported financing)	37%	30%
Houses: median / $/sf / sale-to-list	$2,380,000 / $1,310 / 126.5% (249)	$1,850,000 / $1,021 / 113.4% (272)
Houses: for sale / months supply / pending (SFAR)	204 / 1.0 / 268	276 / 1.5 / 249
Condos and TH: median / $/sf / sale-to-list / days on market	$1,330,000 / $1,178 / 105.9% / 13 (252)	$1,200,000 / $1,021 / 100.0% / 24 (266)
Condos: for sale / months supply / pending (SFAR)	452 / 2.1 / 269	580 / 3.0 / 247
TIC: median / sale-to-list / days on market	$1,350,000 / 110.8% / 13 (30)	$1,202,500 / 100.4% / 19 (38)
2 to 4 units: median / sale-to-list / days on market	$2,500,000 / 106.7% / 19 (59)	$2,075,000 / 100.0% / 21 (83)
Sold $1M+ over asking (month / year to date)	51 / 279	14 in all of 2025

Reliability: every citywide and type-level row is Strong (30 or more sales), including TICs this month at 30 and 38 sales, which sit at the edge of the band and are shown for the record. District reads use August through October and are Strong in every district shown.

Frequently asked questions

How much over asking did San Francisco houses sell for in October 2026?

The median single-family house that closed in October 2026 sold at 126.5% of its asking price, on 249 sales. That is the highest October reading in the ten years since 2016; the prior peak was 114.5% in October 2021. 73% of houses cleared asking by 10% or more and 7% sold under asking. Across all property types the median was 113.7% of asking, against 103.0% in October 2025.

Did 7% mortgage rates slow the San Francisco housing market in October 2026?

They slowed the count, not the price. The 30-year mortgage averaged 7.28% to 7.40% through October per Freddie Mac, against 6.19% a year earlier. Closed sales fell 9% from last October (494 against 540 per SFAR) while homes for sale fell 23%, so the market got thinner on both sides. The median house sold at 126.5% of asking, two points below September and 13 above last October; the median condo rose to 105.9%. Cash paid for 37% of sales against 30%. The financed buyer at the margin stepped back; the buyers who stayed set the price.

What was the median home price in San Francisco in October 2026?

$1,897,500 across all property types, at $1,184 per square foot, on 590 governed closed sales recorded through November 3, 2026, against $1,500,000 and $945 a year earlier. Single-family houses had a median of $2,380,000 ($1,310 per square foot, 249 sales); condos and townhouses $1,330,000 ($1,178 per square foot, 252 sales); two-to-four unit buildings $2,500,000 (59 sales); TICs $1,350,000 on 30 sales.

How many homes are for sale in San Francisco?

656 houses and condos were for sale in San Francisco County at the end of October 2026 per SFAR InfoSparks: 204 houses (down from 227 in September, 26% below October 2025) and 452 condos and townhouses (up from 426, 22% below). That is the fewest of any October in the SFAR series, which starts in 2005. Months of supply: houses 1.0, condos 2.1. Pending sales ran ahead of last October (houses 268 against 249, condos 269 against 247, directional) while closed sales fell to 494 from 540.

How many San Francisco homes sold for $1 million or more over asking in October 2026?

51, the most of any month in 2026, bringing the year to 279 through November 3. Issue #28 has the full count by neighborhood and by asking price, and the ten-year comparison: the prior full-year high was 41 in 2022. The largest of October's was 20 Cherry Street in Presidio Heights, listed at $18,500,000 and closed at $28,500,000 in ten days, cash.

Takeaways

Houses set the ten-year October high at a 7% mortgage: 126.5% of asking on 249 sales (114.5% at the 2021 peak), 73% of sales clearing asking by 10% or more, 7% of sales under asking against 15% last October. Median $2,380,000 and $1,310 per square foot, up 29% and 28% on the year, on a house about 5% larger than last October's. The overbid gave up two points from September's 128.6%; the price did not give up any.
Condos set their own October high: 105.9% of asking in 13 days on 252 sales, against exactly asking in 24 days a year ago, the highest October sale-to-list for condos in the ten we track. The share selling under asking fell from 41% to 15%. Median $1,330,000 and $1,178 per square foot, up 11% and 15%. The towers are still at asking: South Beach, South of Market and Yerba Buena all sold at 100% from August through October, Mission Bay just over.
Across all 590 governed closings the median home sold at 113.7% of asking in 13 days, against 103.0% and 16 days. 64% of sales were in contract within two weeks (45% last October); 8% took more than 60 days (17%). Median price $1,897,500 and $1,184 per square foot, against $1,500,000 and $945.
By price band: under $1 million sold at asking, as it did a year ago, and it is now 19% of the month. $1M to $1.5M ran 114%, $1.5M to $2M 118%, $2M to $3M 125%, $3M to $5M 119% with 47% cash, $5M and up 111% on 47 sales against 29, 86% of them cash. Sales under $1.5 million fell from 49% of the month to 36%; sales at $2 million and up rose from 31% to 47%. 51 homes sold $1 million or more over asking in October alone, the most of any month this year.
The shelf is the thinnest October on record. 204 houses for sale at month end (227 in September, 276 last October) and 452 condos (426, 580): 656 against 856, 23% fewer, the lowest October in the SFAR series back to 2005. Months of supply: houses 1.0, condos 2.1, against 1.5 and 3.0. Closed sales fell to 494 from 540 (and rose from 383 in September); contracts written ran ahead of last October, houses 268 against 249 and condos 269 against 247, read directionally.
What the hike moved: the 30-year mortgage averaged 7.28% in the first week of October, 7.40% in the second and third, and 7.32% in the fourth, against 6.19% a year ago, so most October closings were written at or near 7%. Cash paid for 37% of sales against 30%; the count fell 9%; the median price rose. The buyer the rate removed was the financed buyer at the margin. The buyer it did not remove set the price.

The same cut for every San Francisco neighborhood, refreshed weekly: Paulo’s Pulse, the research lab.

‹ September 2026

Sources and further reading

Methodology and sources

Source: POTM Command, governed MLS analytics, 63,817 governed closed sales as of November 3, 2026. Closed sales dated in the named month, parcel-deduplicated, sale-to-list plausibility band applied. Medians throughout; no averages. Cash share counts only sales that reported financing. Inventory, months of supply, pending and closed-sale counts are SFAR InfoSparks, San Francisco County, October 2026, houses and condos/townhouses, read November 2; InfoSparks restates the newest month, so treat the pending counts as directional. Mortgage rates are the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey weekly 30-year average. The POTM set is larger than SFAR's because it includes TICs, two-to-four unit buildings and every source MLS. Year-ago comparisons are October 2025 on the same rule. District and neighborhood reads use August through October so no district sits on a thin month. Data deemed reliable but not guaranteed, subject to change, correction and revision; no claim of 100% accuracy. Paulo does not give legal, tax or financial advice.

October 2026 in numbers: the first month at 7%, and the bids did not flinch