POTM Blog Issue #28, November 2, 2026
A Million Over, Again
In July, Issue #10 looked at the 44 homes that sold a million dollars or more over asking in June and called it real, and a trophy-house story. Four months later the count for the year is 273. It is still real. It is no longer only a trophy-house story, and it did not stop with the summer.
By Paulo Serna, San Francisco Real Estate Agent, Compass | Level Up Group · CA DRE# 02150409 · Published November 2, 2026
Data source Paulo’s Pulse, governed SFAR MLS data
In July, Issue #10 took a number from Compass economist Mike Simonsen's monthly report, 44 San Francisco homes sold a million dollars or more over asking in June, and read it block by block. The honest read then was that it was real, that it was a trophy-house story in three districts, and that the overbid said as much about list prices as about demand.
I have kept counting since, in the supply and price-segment issues and in the Market Chatter sessions at Compass, where this has become the recurring number agents ask about. This issue brings the count up to date on governed closings through October 27, and grades the July read. Two of its three parts held. One did not.
The count: 273, against a previous high of 41
From January 1 to October 27, 2026, 273 San Francisco homes sold for at least $1,000,000 more than their final list price. The highest count for the same ten months in any year since 2016 was 41, in 2022. Last year it was 14. The years 2016 through 2019, which agents remember as a strong market, produced 5 to 8 apiece.
Scale matters here, because 273 is a count, and the city sells more homes in some years than others. As a share, the 273 are 5.8% of the 4,688 closings in scope this year: one sale in 17. In 2022 the share was 0.8%, one in 125. For houses alone it is sharper. 217 of the 273 were single-family houses, which is one house sale in nine citywide. In 2022 it was one in 62.
Those 217 houses are the story. The other 56 are 28 condos, one townhouse, 21 duplexes, two triplexes and four TICs. Condos make up 45% of the city's sales and 10% of the million-over sales. The condo turn that Issue #27 measured is a different kind of recovery: more bidders, shorter clocks, and a median 1.6% over asking year to date, not a million.
The part that did not hold: it was not a spring
In July the fair assumption was that June was the peak. That is how 2022 went, the only earlier year with a comparable run: 11 million-over sales in April, 11 in May, 2 in June, none in July or August, as rates crossed 5.5% and financed buyers stopped bidding over asking. This year June had 49, the most of any month on record, and the summer did dip, to 23 in July and 17 in August. Then September had 36, and October has 47 through the 27th, with four days of closings still to be recorded. From September 1 to October 27 there were 83. In the same weeks of 2025 there were 7. In 2022 there was 1.
This is the second season Issue #24 described, and it did not run the way the ten-year pattern said a fall should. The October sales were, if anything, hotter than the spring's: a median 150% of asking, 37 of them houses, which is 18% of every house that closed in the city that month. Most of those contracts were written in September and early October as the 30-year mortgage rate crossed 7% in late September and reached 7.40% by mid-October (Freddie Mac). For the million-over buyer that matters less than it sounds, because 62% of October's reported sales were cash, and the rate hike that Issue #25 said would push the financed buyer out first has not shown up in this end of the market.
Where: three districts still, 49 neighborhoods now
Two thirds of the 273 sit in the same three districts Issue #10 named: District 5 (Noe Valley, the Castro, the Haight) with 90, District 7 (Pacific Heights, the Marina, Cow Hollow) with 49, and District 1 (the Richmond, Lake Street, Sea Cliff) with 40. Noe Valley alone has 36, one in three of its house sales. Eureka Valley and Dolores Heights, 18 of 46 house sales. Inner Richmond, 10 of 23. Inner Sunset, 11 of 31.
That part of the July read held. What changed is the edges. In 2022 the 41 million-over sales touched 24 neighborhoods. In all ten prior years combined, 35. This year, 49. Fifteen neighborhoods recorded their first since this data begins, among them Sea Cliff, Nob Hill, Mission Dolores, Lone Mountain, Lower Pacific Heights, Twin Peaks, Forest Knolls, Westwood Park, Central Sunset, Inner Parkside and Outer Parkside. A million over asking in the Parkside was not a sentence anyone wrote in 2022.
And where it still does not happen matters as much. District 10, the Bayview, Excelsior, Portola and Visitacion Valley, sold 345 houses this year and not one of them cleared a million over. District 3 (Lakeshore, Ingleside, Oceanview) had one in 133. District 2, the Sunset and Parkside, 21 in 361, 6%. The city has one million-over market and it is west of Twin Peaks only in part, north of Market mostly, and south of Cesar Chavez barely.
What is inside the number
The typical million-over home this year was listed at $2,995,000 and sold for $4,500,000, which is 147% of asking and $1,280,000 over, in 10 days. 256 of the 273 were in contract within two weeks; two took more than a month. 95 cleared a million and a half over; 43 cleared two million over. The largest gap was 20 Cherry St in Presidio Heights, listed at $18.5 million and sold October 22 for $28.5 million.
What the list price said
$2,995,000
median asking price of the 273, the same in the fall as in the spring
143 of them, 52%, were listed under $3 million. 64 were listed under $2 million and sold at a median 164% of asking. At a normal 110% overbid, 8 of the 273 would have cleared a million
What the buyers paid
$4,500,000
median sale price, 147% of asking, in 10 days; 65% of reported financing was cash
Median $1,280,000 over asking. 95 sales cleared $1.5 million over, 43 cleared $2 million over. 256 of 273 were in contract within two weeks; two took more than a month
Cash paid for 65% of the sales that reported financing, 151 of 232, about where it was in Issue #10 and far above the city's 34% for all sales. These were also, physically, a specific kind of house. Two thirds of the 217 houses had four or more bedrooms; 40% of all houses sold this year did. They ran a median 2,650 square feet against 1,854 for all houses, and $1,817 a square foot against $1,191. They were not the median house priced low. They were the big house, priced to start a contest.
The list price did half the work
This is the part of the July read that holds best, and the one worth repeating to anyone pricing a home this winter. The million is measured against the list price, and the list price is a decision. 143 of the 273, 52%, were listed under $3 million; 64 were listed under $2 million and sold at a median 164% of asking. If every one of the 273 had sold at 110% of its list, a normal strong-market overbid, 8 would have cleared a million. At 115%, 25.
So the 273 is not a count of homes that were worth a million more than anyone thought. It is a count of homes where the pricing strategy and the demand met in a particular way: a list price set below the recent sales in the block, a short exposure, and several buyers with cash who had already decided what the house was worth. The buyers paid what the block said. The sellers chose the starting line.
Who sold, and what they made
103 of the 273 had a prior sale on the MLS since 2016. Those sellers owned a median 5.7 years and sold for a median 72% more than they paid, a median gain of $1,845,000. The 43 who bought between 2020 and 2022, through the pandemic and the rate shock, sold for 63% more. The 18 who bought within the last three years sold for 128% more, though several of those were renovated between sales, and this data does not see the renovation. The other 170 bought before 2016 or off the MLS, and their gain is not in this record.
What it means if you are buying
If you are shopping for a house between $2 million and $4 million in Districts 1, 5 or 7, the list price is not information about what the house will sell for. In the $2 million to $3 million asking band, 13% of all closings this year went a million or more over; in the $3 million to $4 million band, 21%. Underwrite to the last five sales on the block, not to the list, and decide your number before the first open house, because 256 of these 273 were in contract inside two weeks.
If you are shopping in District 2, 3 or 10, or for a condo almost anywhere, this is not your market. Houses in the Sunset and Parkside sold at a median 136% of asking this year and 90% went over, but only 6% cleared a million over; in the Excelsior and Bayview, a median 117%, and none did. Competition is just as real there, as Issue #26 showed. It is measured in hundreds of thousands, not millions, because the list prices start lower.
What it means if you are selling
If you own a four-bedroom house in one of the three districts, the pricing conversation is the whole conversation. The sellers who cleared a million over did not list at the number they wanted. They listed where the first weekend would be crowded, and let the crowd set the number. That works when the house is the kind several cash buyers are waiting for, and it works less well the further the house is from that description. The honest version of this advice is that the strategy fits the house, not the other way around, and a million over is the result of a match, not a plan.
If you are anywhere else, price to the block's last sales and expect a strong result, not a headline. The 168 houses that sold under asking this year, 9% of the total, are mostly houses that were listed at the number the seller wanted. That is the other half of this story, and the next issue will take it up: what the whole house market, not the top of it, did this fall.
AI Corridor Scoreboard
One reading per issue on the city's softest segment, the condos near the new AI offices, so you can watch the turn as it happens.
| Issue | Date | Reading | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| #28 (this issue) | Nov 2, 2026 | The corridor keeps closing the gap without joining the bidding. Over the 30 days to October 27, 64 condos sold in South of Market, South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba Buena, against 52 a year earlier, at a median exactly at asking (98.6% a year ago) in 20 days (39), with a quarter selling under asking (62%) and 42% over (23%). Cash paid for 29% of them, down from 43%. Of the city's 273 sales a million or more over asking this year, 28 were condos, and none of those was in the corridor. | At asking, a quarter under, and not one million-over sale in the towers. |
| #27 | Oct 17, 2026 | The corridor is still the city's negotiating room, and the room is smaller. Over the 30 days to October 15, 57 condos sold in South of Market, South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba Buena, the same count as a year earlier, at a median exactly at asking (99.4% a year ago) in 30 days (31), with a third selling under asking (58%). Cash paid for 30% of them, down from 47%. | At asking, a third under, and the room half what it was in June. |
Show the 24 earlier readings
| Issue | Date | Reading | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| #26 | Oct 10, 2026 | The corridor is the exception to this issue, and it is holding. Over the 30 days to October 8, 51 condos sold in South of Market, South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba Buena, against 62 a year earlier, at a median exactly at asking (98.7% a year ago) in 30 days (27), with 43% selling under asking (61%). Cash paid for 37% of them, down from 59%, which means financed buyers are coming back to the one part of the city that still negotiates. | At asking, fewer sales, and financed buyers back in the room. |
| #25 | Oct 1, 2026 | The corridor has not felt the hike yet, and it is the one place in the city where cash already runs the room. Over the 30 days to September 25, 46 condos sold in South of Market, South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba Buena, against 51 a year earlier, at a median exactly at asking (98.3% a year ago) in 30 days (22), with half selling under asking (65%). Cash paid for 41% of them. Contracts written after September 16 close in October. | Holding at asking, with more room to negotiate than anywhere else in the city. |
| #24 | Sep 22, 2026 | Into the fall, the corridor holds at asking. Over the 30 days to September 21, 52 condos sold in South of Market, South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba Buena, the same count as a year earlier, at a median exactly at asking (97.9% a year ago) in 28 days. The share selling under asking fell from 64% to 46%. | Steady, and still the city's best room to negotiate. |
| #23 | Sep 15, 2026 | Buyers came back and the corridor is still at asking. From June 1 to September 11, 217 condos sold in South of Market, South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba Buena, against 151 over the same days of 2025, at a median exactly at asking (97.6% a year ago) in 25 days (49 a year ago). The share selling under asking fell from 71% to 39%. | Still the negotiator's end of the city, with less room than a year ago. |
| #22 | Sep 2, 2026 | The steepest second bedroom in the city. Corridor one-bedrooms sold at a median $702,500 and two-bedrooms at $1,350,000 over the last 12 months, a $647,500 step on 338 and 329 sales, with both rungs still at or just under asking (99.7% and 99.6%) in 34 and 23 median days. | The corridor still negotiates, and the one-bedroom negotiates longest. |
| #21 | Aug 30, 2026 | Still the calm end of the map. South Beach at asking on 167 sales with 29.9% over; SoMa, Mission Bay and Van Ness / Civic Center at asking; Yerba Buena 1.7% below. Meanwhile 56.6% of condos citywide now clear asking, up from 36.4% a year ago. | The negotiator's end of the market, with the floor rising underneath it. |
| #20 | Aug 25, 2026 | Two markets, one label. Corridor towers still at or below asking over the past six months (South Beach at asking on 168 sales, Yerba Buena -2.2%) while low-dues flats citywide cleared 10%+ over in 59.9% of sales. | Check the dues before you plan the offer. |
| #19 | Aug 18, 2026 | Where cash buys the most and shouts the least. Corridor condos ran 41.7% cash in the past 12 months, the heaviest concentration this series tracks, yet cash and financed closed at the same price, 99.2% versus 99.3% of asking. Cash's whole edge here is the clock: 20 median days on market against 39 financed. | Financed buyers give up nothing on price here; they pay in patience. |
| #17 | Aug 9, 2026 | Zero, which is the cleanest reading this scoreboard has produced. Across 368 corridor condo closings so far in 2026, not one sold $1,000,000 over asking, and the typical one closed slightly under asking: South Beach 0.7% below on 183 sales, South of Market 1.0% below on 79, Yerba Buena 2.4% below on 53, Mission Bay exactly at asking on 53. In an issue about where the overbidding is, the corridor is where it is not. | Buyer opening holds, and this issue measures exactly how wide it is. |
| #16 | Aug 6, 2026 | Flat in every window, which this issue argues is the whole point. South Beach condos read 100.0% of asking at 30, 90 and 180 days and 99.0% over the trailing year. South of Market reads 99.4, 99.8, 99.6 and 99.0. Four windows, one answer. Every house lane in this issue moved when the window moved; the corridor did not, and a segment that reads the same no matter how you slice it is a segment that is not turning. | Buyer opening holds, and now it is measured four ways instead of one. |
| #15 | Aug 2, 2026 | Unchanged at the bottom of the same ladder. This issue extended the over-asking gradient into small multifamily, and the corridor still anchors the low end: right at asking, while two-unit buildings cleared 11.7% over and houses 23.8%. The ordering is by how much a property lives like a house, and a corridor tower is the furthest thing from one. | Buyer opening holds, and this issue explains why it persists. |
| #14 | Jul 29, 2026 | Read on supply this time, not price. Citywide condo and townhome months of supply fell from 3.9 to 1.7 in a year and active listings from 772 to 480, so even the calmest lane in the city now offers less to choose from. This issue did not re-measure corridor pricing. | Buyer opening holds on price; the shelf behind it is thinner. |
| #13 | Jul 25, 2026 | Graduated to the essay. Back at asking for the first time since 2022, after three springs about 1% below it, and the clock changed: median market time fell from 38 days to 19 and the share selling over asking roughly doubled, from the low twenties to the mid forties. Price at par, speed doubled. | Negotiating room intact; the window now narrows in speed, not price. |
| #12 | Jul 21, 2026 | Still the calm corner, and it proves the point. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold right at list, about 100%, with only 31% over asking on 836 sales, while mid-priced houses cleared 123 to 127% of list. Condos rarely get listed low to start a war, so the overbid never appears. | Buyer leverage holds where the list-low tactic is not used. |
| #11 | Jul 17, 2026 | Unmoved by the house story. While overbidding ran one tier below the trophy core, the corridor and condo core cleared near asking, and the two flat lanes the field named as spillover candidates, Hayes Valley and Lower Pacific Heights, stayed calm in closed data. | Still the clearest buyer opening in the city. |
| #10 | Jul 14, 2026 | Still soft while the headline is elsewhere. June's million-over-asking story is a west-side and central house market, not the AI-corridor towers. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay and South Beach, ran about 10% below last year even as volume climbed. Activity returns to the corridor; pricing has not. | Still the clearest buyer opening in the city. |
| #09 | Jul 10, 2026 | Still the soft floor at the halfway mark. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold near 100% of list with only about 36% over asking on roughly 290 sales this year, while citywide houses ran near 121% of list. The widest lane in the city stays open. | Clearest buyer opportunity holds into the second half. |
| #08 | Jul 5, 2026 | Still the soft floor even as the top books records. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold near 100% of list with heavy cash and light competition, while $5M+ houses set a decade volume record at about 112% of list on roughly 64% cash. Cash without a crowd here. | Buyer opportunity intact where the crowds are not. |
| #06 | Jun 25, 2026 | Still the calm corner while the house middle runs hot. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold right at list, about 100%, with only 35% over asking on 300 sales, against the $1.5M to $3M house band at 122 to 125% of list. | Buyer opportunity holds where the bidding wars are not. |
| #05 | Jun 21, 2026 | Cash, not heat. Corridor condos carry heavier cash than the citywide condo average, about 42% versus 37%, yet still sell near 98.7% of list with only about 20% over asking versus 45% citywide. Cash concentrates here; competition does not. | Negotiating room for financed buyers. |
| #04 | Jun 17, 2026 | Still the soft floor while houses raced ahead. Corridor near 98 to 99% of list versus 103.8% citywide and about 123% for single-family in the last 30 days. | Buyer opportunity holds; the gap to houses only widened. |
| #03 | Jun 13, 2026 | Still the bottom of the overbid table. Corridor sale-to-list at about 98 to 99% versus 103.6% citywide, trailing year. | Opportunity intact for negotiators. |
| #02 | Jun 10, 2026 | Turning at the edges. Citywide condos hit 101.4% of list in May; inventory fell to 584 from 905. The corridor towers remain the soft end. | Window narrowing, not closed. |
| #01 | Jun 7, 2026 | Soft. Only 37 to 43% of SoMa, Mission Bay, and downtown condos sold over asking. | Clearest buyer opportunity in the city. |
By the numbers
| Measure, January 1 to October 27 unless noted | 2026 | 2022 (previous high) / 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Sales $1 million or more over asking | 273 | 41 / 14 |
| All closings in scope, and the million-over share | 4,688, 5.8% (one in 17) | 5,155, 0.8% (one in 125) / 4,421, 0.3% |
| Houses a million over, and the share of all house sales | 217 of 1,896, 11.4% (one in 9) | 33 of 2,036, 1.6% (one in 62) / 13 of 1,903, 0.7% |
| Mix: houses / condos and townhouses / 2 to 4 units / TICs | 217 / 29 / 23 / 4 | 33 / 4 / 4 / 0 (2022) |
| Neighborhoods with at least one | 49 | 24 / 10 |
| Median list price / median sale price | $2,995,000 / $4,500,000 | $2,795,000 / $4,025,000 (2022) |
| Median sale price against asking, and median dollars over | 146.8%, $1,280,000 | 142.6% (2022) / 139.9% (2025) |
| Median days on market; sold within 7 / within 14 / more than 30 days | 10; 99 / 256 / 2 | |
| Cash share of sales reporting financing (cash / reported) | 65% (151 / 232) | |
| Listed under $2 million / under $3 million | 64 / 143 | |
| By asking price band, count and share of that band's closings: under $2M | 64, 1.8% of 3,544 | |
| $2M to $3M | 79, 13.0% of 610 | |
| $3M to $4M | 50, 21.4% of 234 | |
| $4M to $5M | 25, 23.6% of 106 | |
| $5M to $7M | 34, 35.4% of 96 | |
| $7M and up | 21, 21.4% of 98 | |
| Cleared $1.5 million over / $2 million over | 95 / 43 | |
| Largest: 20 Cherry St, Presidio Heights, listed $18,500,000, sold $28,500,000 on October 22 | $10,000,000 over | |
| By month: Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct 1 to 27 | 4, 8, 21, 33, 35, 49, 23, 17, 36, 47 | 2, 5, 9, 11, 11, 2, 0, 0, 1, 0 (2022) |
| September 1 to October 27 | 83 | 1 / 7 |
| October 1 to 27: count, share of closings, houses as share of house sales, median against asking | 47, 9.8%, 37 of 201 (18%), 150.2% | 0 (2022) / 3 (2025) |
| By district: 5 / 7 / 1 / 4 / 2 / 9 / 6 / 8 / 3 / 10 | 90 / 49 / 40 / 24 / 23 / 23 / 14 / 9 / 1 / 0 | 14 / 3 / 7 / 7 / 5 / 2 / 1 / 2 / 0 / 0 (2022) |
| Top neighborhoods: Noe Valley / Eureka Valley-Dolores Heights / Pacific Heights / Marina / Inner Sunset / Inner Richmond | 36 / 18 / 18 / 13 / 12 / 11 | |
| Houses with 4+ bedrooms, million-over houses / all houses sold | 67% / 40% | |
| Million-over houses: median square feet, median price per square foot | 2,650, $1,817 | all houses sold in 2026: 1,854, $1,191 |
| Would still clear $1 million over at 110% / 115% of its own list price | 8 / 25 | |
| Sellers with a prior MLS sale since 2016: count, median years held, median gain | 103 of 273, 5.7 years, 72% ($1,845,000) | |
| Bought 2020 to 2022 / bought within 3 years: count, median gain | 43, 63% / 18, 128% | |
| Sales $500,000 or more over asking | 1,034 | 473 / 242 |
- 273 San Francisco homes sold $1 million or more over asking from January 1 to October 27, 2026, against 41 in the same months of 2022, the previous high, and 14 in 2025. That is 5.8% of all closings, one in 17; in 2022 it was 0.8%, one in 125.
- It is a house market. 217 of the 273 were single-family houses, one house sale in nine citywide (one in 62 in 2022). 28 were condos, 21 duplexes, 2 triplexes, 4 TICs and one townhouse.
- It did not fade after June. 2022's million-over sales were gone by June; 2026's came back after the summer: 36 in September and 47 in October through the 27th, against 49 in June, the record month. From September 1 to October 27 there were 83, against 7 in the same weeks of 2025 and 1 in 2022.
- It spread. 49 neighborhoods recorded at least one, against 24 in 2022 and 35 in all ten prior years combined. Fifteen neighborhoods recorded their first since 2016, among them Sea Cliff, Nob Hill, Mission Dolores, Lone Mountain, Central Sunset and Inner Parkside. Still, two thirds of the 273 sit in three districts: District 5 (90), District 7 (49) and District 1 (40). District 10 had none in 345 house sales.
- The list price did half the work. The median one was listed at $2,995,000 and sold for $4,500,000, 147% of asking, a median $1,280,000 over. 143 were listed under $3 million. At a normal 110% overbid, 8 of the 273 would have cleared a million; at 115%, 25. These are big houses priced to start a contest, not big houses priced to sell: 67% had four or more bedrooms, against 40% of all houses sold, at a median 2,650 square feet and $1,817 a square foot.
- Who sold: 103 of the 273 had a prior MLS sale since 2016. Those sellers held a median 5.7 years and sold for a median 72% more, $1,845,000. The 43 who bought in 2020 to 2022 sold for 63% more; the 18 who bought within the last three years, for 128% more.
Sale-to-list, days on market and median price for every San Francisco neighborhood are live in the market explorer, refreshed weekly.
Sources and further reading
- Issue #10: A Million Over Asking, the July read this issue updates
- Issue #26: The Price of Winning, competition by asking-price band
- Issue #24: The Second Season, what the ten-year fall pattern said to expect
- Issue #17: The Overbid Map Is Not the Heat Map, where overbids live at the neighborhood grain
- Issue #19: What Cash Actually Buys, the cash share behind these sales
- Topic: San Francisco overbidding, the whole question in one place
- Topic: cash buyers in San Francisco
- Topic: AI wealth and San Francisco real estate
- How I read the San Francisco market, the method behind these figures
- How I read the San Francisco market, the method behind these figures
Methodology and sources
POTM Command governed MLS closings, October 28, 2026 export: 63,700 deduplicated closed sales in San Francisco from January 1, 2016 through October 27, 2026, with the quarantine, price-parse and sale-to-list plausibility rules applied, the same rules as the BigQuery governed view. One more pass removes 975 rows over the ten years where the same sale (same address, closing date and price) was entered twice under two property types, for example a house also listed as a duplex; 62,725 sales remain. A million over means a sale price at least $1,000,000 above the final list price. The scope is houses, condominiums, townhouses, TICs and two to four unit buildings; five-plus unit buildings and "other" are excluded, which is the same scope as the October 2026 Market Chatter register and differs from Issue #10 only in including small multi-unit buildings. One 2026 sale that would qualify, 885 Head St, is quarantined by the data-quality review and is not counted. The window is January 1 to October 27 of each year; full-year totals for earlier years are given where they differ. The 44 in Issue #10 were June 2026 closings as of July 9; this store counts 49 for June, because late-reported closings land in later exports, and for the same reason 255 of the 273 had closed by October 16 where the October Market Chatter deck, built on an earlier export, counted 252. Neighborhoods are the 90 MLS subdistricts; one of the 273 (40 Sea View Ter, District 1) carries no subdistrict and is counted in the district only, so 49 named neighborhoods. Prior sales are matched by parcel number, then by address, within this store, so a home bought before 2016 or off the MLS shows no prior sale. Cash shares are of sales that reported financing (232 of 273). The counterfactual (how many would clear a million at 110% or 115% of list) applies that ratio to each home's own list price; it is an arithmetic check on the role of the list price, not an estimate of value. Reliability follows the POTM Command thresholds: 20 sales or more is strong, 10 to 19 is directional, fewer is anecdotal and is not argued from; Districts 6 and 8 and the single-neighborhood house shares are directional or anecdotal and are labeled. General information, not a forecast, a valuation of any specific home, or legal, lending or tax advice.
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