The Price of Winning

Ask a buyer what they are looking for and they will tell you an asking price. "Something under a million." "Up to a million and a half." Nobody shops by what a home will eventually sell for, because nobody knows that yet. And yet every price-band chart in this market, including the segments table on my own data pages, sorts homes by sale price, because that is the number the MLS records last.

The difference matters most at the bottom. A house listed at $950,000 that sells for $1,250,000 gets filed under $1 million to $1.5 million. The under $1 million band keeps only the houses that did not get bid up, so it looks calm. For this issue I re-sorted the last 90 days of San Francisco closings by the price the seller asked, and the calm corner disappeared.

Houses: the fight is everywhere, the price of it is not

In the 90 days to October 8, 501 single-family houses closed in San Francisco. Sorted by asking price, the share that sold over asking barely moves from band to band: 88% of houses listed under $1 million, 89% from $1 million to $1.5 million, 92% from $1.5 million to $2 million, 91% from $2 million to $3 million, 88% from $3 million to $5 million. Only above $5 million does it fall, to 67%, and two in three is still a majority.

What changes is how much it takes to win. The median house listed under $1 million sold 20.6% over asking, $200,020 above the list. The $1 million to $1.5 million band carried the largest overbid in the city: a median 31.6% over, $383,000, so a $1.25 million list closed near $1.65 million. From there the percentage eases as the asking price climbs, 26.8%, 23.8%, 19.8%, and 10.0% above $5 million, while the dollar figure keeps growing to $791,375 in the $3 million to $5 million band. The cheapest listings are the most contested relative to price; the most expensive are the most contested in dollars.

Compare that to the same 90 days of 2025 and every band moved up, some by a lot. Houses listed $1 million to $1.5 million went from 16.3% over to 31.6%. The $2 million to $3 million band went from 8.3% to 23.8%. The $3 million to $5 million band, which sold at asking a year ago, is now 19.8% over, the largest single move on the chart. Even the $5 million and up band, which sold slightly under asking last fall, is 10% over this one. Citywide, the median house went from 10.8% over asking to 23.8%, and from 74% of houses selling over asking to 88%.

The $1 million house is a list price

Here is the cleanest way to see what the sale-price chart hides. In those 90 days, 99 houses came to market asking less than $1 million. Thirty-seven of them closed under $1 million. The median house that started under $1 million finished at $1,120,000, and 45% of them closed at $1.2 million or more. A year earlier 134 houses were listed under $1 million and 78 sold there; the entry end of the house market has lost a quarter of its listings and more than half of its sub-$1 million closings in a year.

Sorted by sale price, the under $1 million house band shows 56% selling over asking across the past twelve months. Sorted by asking price, the same twelve months show 84%. Neither number is wrong. One describes the houses that stayed cheap, and the other describes what happened to a buyer who went looking for one.

Condos: a narrower fight, and one open door

Condos and townhouses run on a different scale, as they have all year. Of 611 closings in the 90 days, 60% sold over asking, at a median 1.9% over, in 14 days. A year ago it was 31%, at a median just under asking, in 36 days. That is the condo market's recovery in one line.

By asking price, the condo fight sits between $1 million and $3 million: 72% of condos listed from $1 million to $1.5 million sold over asking, 70% from $1.5 million to $2 million, 65% from $2 million to $3 million. The $1 million to $1.5 million band closed a median 8.9% over, $113,000, the only condo band that behaves like a house band. Above $3 million, condos sold at a median of exactly asking, and two thirds of those buyers paid cash.

Then there is the one segment in the city where a buyer still has a real chance of paying asking or less. Of 261 condos listed under $1 million, 31% sold under asking, 18% at asking and 52% over, with a median exactly at asking and 24 days on market. It is the only band in either property type where a third of buyers paid less than the list price. It is also half the room it was: a year ago 51% of these condos sold under asking and the median one took 48 days. The door is open; it is closing from the top.

Who is paying the price of winning

Within the house bands, cash buyers paid more to win than financed buyers did, which is the pattern the cash issues of August found and this window repeats. Among houses listed under $1 million, the 21 cash buyers closed at a median 137.5% of asking against 120.6% for the 74 financed buyers. In the $1 million to $1.5 million band it was 139.1% against 130.4%. Cash is a fifth of the buyers at the entry end, a third from $1.5 million to $3 million, 58% from $3 million to $5 million and 75% above that. The price of winning is highest where financed buyers are most of the field, and the top of the market, where cash is most of the field, has the smallest percentage overbid.

The last 30 days

The 90-day window is the honest one for bands this fine. The 30 days to October 8 are worth a line on their own, because they hold the first closings with contracts written after the September 16 rate hike. Houses sold at a median 129.6% of asking, 91% over, in 12 days. Condos sold at 106.1%, 70% over, in 13 days. Both are hotter than the 90-day figures. Whatever the hike does to this market, it has not done it yet.

What it means if you are buying

Price your search by what homes sell for, not by what they list for, and in house country assume the gap is 20% to 30% in every band under $5 million. A $1.3 million budget for a house means looking at listings near $1 million. If a sub-$1 million house is the goal, know that two in three of them left that price in the 90 days, and plan to be the one bid in ten that does not have to.

In condo country the map is more useful. Under $1 million, a third of sellers took less than asking and nearly a fifth took exactly asking, so a full-price offer with clean terms is a real offer there. Between $1 million and $3 million, expect to compete, with the sharpest fight at $1 million to $1.5 million. Above $3 million, asking is the price and cash is the room.

What it means if you are selling

A house listed anywhere under $5 million has sold over asking nine times in ten this quarter, so the asking price is a strategy, not a prediction, and the bands show what each strategy has been producing. The largest percentage results came from lists in the $1 million to $1.5 million range, which is where many agents set a house they expect to sell for $1.6 million or more. That works when there is a crowd. The 30-day figures say there still is one.

For a condo under $1 million, the price has to be right on the first day. Half of these sell at asking or under, and the ones that sold over asking did it in 24 days against 48 a year ago, which means the ones that sit are the ones that were priced for a crowd that did not come. Above $3 million, price to the comps and expect the close to land there.

AI Corridor Scoreboard

One reading per issue on the city's softest segment, the condos near the new AI offices, so you can watch the turn as it happens.

Issue	Date	Reading	Call
#26 (this issue)	Oct 10, 2026	The corridor is the exception to this issue, and it is holding. Over the 30 days to October 8, 51 condos sold in South of Market, South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba Buena, against 62 a year earlier, at a median exactly at asking (98.7% a year ago) in 30 days (27), with 43% selling under asking (61%). Cash paid for 37% of them, down from 59%, which means financed buyers are coming back to the one part of the city that still negotiates.	At asking, fewer sales, and financed buyers back in the room.
#25	Oct 1, 2026	The corridor has not felt the hike yet, and it is the one place in the city where cash already runs the room. Over the 30 days to September 25, 46 condos sold in South of Market, South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba Buena, against 51 a year earlier, at a median exactly at asking (98.3% a year ago) in 30 days (22), with half selling under asking (65%). Cash paid for 41% of them. Contracts written after September 16 close in October.	Holding at asking, with more room to negotiate than anywhere else in the city.

Show the 22 earlier readings

Issue	Date	Reading	Call
#24	Sep 22, 2026	Into the fall, the corridor holds at asking. Over the 30 days to September 21, 52 condos sold in South of Market, South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba Buena, the same count as a year earlier, at a median exactly at asking (97.9% a year ago) in 28 days. The share selling under asking fell from 64% to 46%.	Steady, and still the city's best room to negotiate.
#23	Sep 15, 2026	Buyers came back and the corridor is still at asking. From June 1 to September 11, 217 condos sold in South of Market, South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba Buena, against 151 over the same days of 2025, at a median exactly at asking (97.6% a year ago) in 25 days (49 a year ago). The share selling under asking fell from 71% to 39%.	Still the negotiator's end of the city, with less room than a year ago.
#22	Sep 2, 2026	The steepest second bedroom in the city. Corridor one-bedrooms sold at a median $702,500 and two-bedrooms at $1,350,000 over the last 12 months, a $647,500 step on 338 and 329 sales, with both rungs still at or just under asking (99.7% and 99.6%) in 34 and 23 median days.	The corridor still negotiates, and the one-bedroom negotiates longest.
#21	Aug 30, 2026	Still the calm end of the map. South Beach at asking on 167 sales with 29.9% over; SoMa, Mission Bay and Van Ness / Civic Center at asking; Yerba Buena 1.7% below. Meanwhile 56.6% of condos citywide now clear asking, up from 36.4% a year ago.	The negotiator's end of the market, with the floor rising underneath it.
#20	Aug 25, 2026	Two markets, one label. Corridor towers still at or below asking over the past six months (South Beach at asking on 168 sales, Yerba Buena -2.2%) while low-dues flats citywide cleared 10%+ over in 59.9% of sales.	Check the dues before you plan the offer.
#19	Aug 18, 2026	Where cash buys the most and shouts the least. Corridor condos ran 41.7% cash in the past 12 months, the heaviest concentration this series tracks, yet cash and financed closed at the same price, 99.2% versus 99.3% of asking. Cash's whole edge here is the clock: 20 median days on market against 39 financed.	Financed buyers give up nothing on price here; they pay in patience.
#17	Aug 9, 2026	Zero, which is the cleanest reading this scoreboard has produced. Across 368 corridor condo closings so far in 2026, not one sold $1,000,000 over asking, and the typical one closed slightly under asking: South Beach 0.7% below on 183 sales, South of Market 1.0% below on 79, Yerba Buena 2.4% below on 53, Mission Bay exactly at asking on 53. In an issue about where the overbidding is, the corridor is where it is not.	Buyer opening holds, and this issue measures exactly how wide it is.
#16	Aug 6, 2026	Flat in every window, which this issue argues is the whole point. South Beach condos read 100.0% of asking at 30, 90 and 180 days and 99.0% over the trailing year. South of Market reads 99.4, 99.8, 99.6 and 99.0. Four windows, one answer. Every house lane in this issue moved when the window moved; the corridor did not, and a segment that reads the same no matter how you slice it is a segment that is not turning.	Buyer opening holds, and now it is measured four ways instead of one.
#15	Aug 2, 2026	Unchanged at the bottom of the same ladder. This issue extended the over-asking gradient into small multifamily, and the corridor still anchors the low end: right at asking, while two-unit buildings cleared 11.7% over and houses 23.8%. The ordering is by how much a property lives like a house, and a corridor tower is the furthest thing from one.	Buyer opening holds, and this issue explains why it persists.
#14	Jul 29, 2026	Read on supply this time, not price. Citywide condo and townhome months of supply fell from 3.9 to 1.7 in a year and active listings from 772 to 480, so even the calmest lane in the city now offers less to choose from. This issue did not re-measure corridor pricing.	Buyer opening holds on price; the shelf behind it is thinner.
#13	Jul 25, 2026	Graduated to the essay. Back at asking for the first time since 2022, after three springs about 1% below it, and the clock changed: median market time fell from 38 days to 19 and the share selling over asking roughly doubled, from the low twenties to the mid forties. Price at par, speed doubled.	Negotiating room intact; the window now narrows in speed, not price.
#12	Jul 21, 2026	Still the calm corner, and it proves the point. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold right at list, about 100%, with only 31% over asking on 836 sales, while mid-priced houses cleared 123 to 127% of list. Condos rarely get listed low to start a war, so the overbid never appears.	Buyer leverage holds where the list-low tactic is not used.
#11	Jul 17, 2026	Unmoved by the house story. While overbidding ran one tier below the trophy core, the corridor and condo core cleared near asking, and the two flat lanes the field named as spillover candidates, Hayes Valley and Lower Pacific Heights, stayed calm in closed data.	Still the clearest buyer opening in the city.
#10	Jul 14, 2026	Still soft while the headline is elsewhere. June's million-over-asking story is a west-side and central house market, not the AI-corridor towers. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay and South Beach, ran about 10% below last year even as volume climbed. Activity returns to the corridor; pricing has not.	Still the clearest buyer opening in the city.
#09	Jul 10, 2026	Still the soft floor at the halfway mark. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold near 100% of list with only about 36% over asking on roughly 290 sales this year, while citywide houses ran near 121% of list. The widest lane in the city stays open.	Clearest buyer opportunity holds into the second half.
#08	Jul 5, 2026	Still the soft floor even as the top books records. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold near 100% of list with heavy cash and light competition, while $5M+ houses set a decade volume record at about 112% of list on roughly 64% cash. Cash without a crowd here.	Buyer opportunity intact where the crowds are not.
#06	Jun 25, 2026	Still the calm corner while the house middle runs hot. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold right at list, about 100%, with only 35% over asking on 300 sales, against the $1.5M to $3M house band at 122 to 125% of list.	Buyer opportunity holds where the bidding wars are not.
#05	Jun 21, 2026	Cash, not heat. Corridor condos carry heavier cash than the citywide condo average, about 42% versus 37%, yet still sell near 98.7% of list with only about 20% over asking versus 45% citywide. Cash concentrates here; competition does not.	Negotiating room for financed buyers.
#04	Jun 17, 2026	Still the soft floor while houses raced ahead. Corridor near 98 to 99% of list versus 103.8% citywide and about 123% for single-family in the last 30 days.	Buyer opportunity holds; the gap to houses only widened.
#03	Jun 13, 2026	Still the bottom of the overbid table. Corridor sale-to-list at about 98 to 99% versus 103.6% citywide, trailing year.	Opportunity intact for negotiators.
#02	Jun 10, 2026	Turning at the edges. Citywide condos hit 101.4% of list in May; inventory fell to 584 from 905. The corridor towers remain the soft end.	Window narrowing, not closed.
#01	Jun 7, 2026	Soft. Only 37 to 43% of SoMa, Mission Bay, and downtown condos sold over asking.	Clearest buyer opportunity in the city.

By the numbers

Measure, 90 days to October 8, 2026 unless noted	Houses	Condos and townhouses
Closings, 2026 / same days of 2025	501 / 531	611 / 581
Share sold over asking, 2026 / 2025	88% / 74%	60% / 31%
Median sale price against asking, 2026 / 2025	123.8% / 110.8%	101.9% / 99.9%
Median days on market, 2026 / 2025	12 / 13	14 / 36
Closings by asking band: under $1M / $1M to 1.5M / $1.5M to 2M / $2M to 3M / $3M to 5M / $5M and up	99 / 150 / 105 / 74 / 40 / 33	261 / 169 / 97 / 49 / 25 / 10
Share sold over asking, by asking band	88% / 89% / 92% / 91% / 88% / 67%	52% / 72% / 70% / 65% / 32% / 40%
Median over asking, by asking band	+20.6% / +31.6% / +26.8% / +23.8% / +19.8% / +10.0%	+0.2% / +8.9% / +4.0% / +7.1% / 0.0% / 0.0%
Same, 2025	+11.7% / +16.3% / +12.9% / +8.3% / +0.1% / -1.4%	-0.4% / -0.4% / -0.6% / 0.0% / 0.0% / 0.0%
Median dollars over asking, by asking band	$200,020 / $383,000 / $502,000 / $605,000 / $791,375 / $750,000	$1,000 / $113,000 / $66,112 / $167,000 / $0 / $0
Median days on market, by asking band	13 / 13 / 11 / 12 / 11 / 7	24 / 12 / 12 / 9 / 12 / 13
Cash share of reported financing, by asking band	22% / 19% / 32% / 33% / 58% / 75%	32% / 31% / 47% / 61% / 68% / 60%
Median sale price against asking, cash / financed buyers, houses listed under $1M (21 / 74 sales)	137.5% / 120.6%
Same, houses listed $1M to $1.5M (26 / 108 sales)	139.1% / 130.4%
Listed under $1M / sold under $1M, 2026	99 / 37	261 / 224
Listed under $1M / sold under $1M, 2025	134 / 78	272 / 243
Median sale price of homes listed under $1M; share closing at $1.2M or more	$1,120,000; 45%	$750,000
Median sale price of homes listed $1M to $1.5M	$1,672,500	$1,415,000
Condos listed under $1M: share under / at / over asking, 2026		31% / 18% / 52%
Same, 2025		51% / 19% / 30%
Share sold over asking, homes that sold under $1M, 12 months to October 8 (sale-price band)	56%	35%
Share sold over asking, homes listed under $1M, 12 months to October 8 (asking-price band)	84%	44%
30 days to October 8, 2026: median against asking, share over, days, sales	129.6%, 91%, 12, 184	106.1%, 70%, 13, 211

Sale-to-list, days on market and median price for every San Francisco neighborhood are live in the market explorer, refreshed weekly, with price segments for the city and for each neighborhood.

Sources and further reading

• Issue #25: The Buyer Who Leaves First, what the rate hike does next
• Issue #12: Why San Francisco Homes Sell So Far Over Asking, the pricing decoder
• Issue #19: What Cash Actually Buys, cash against financed by price band
• Issue #06: The Missing Middle, the first look at the entry end
• Topic: San Francisco overbidding, the whole question in one place
• Topic: house, condo, or TIC, three different markets
• Topic: the San Francisco condo market
• How I read the San Francisco market, the method behind these figures
• How I read the San Francisco market, the method behind these figures

Methodology and sources

POTM Command governed MLS closings, October 9, 2026 export: 63,321 deduplicated closed sales in San Francisco from January 1, 2016 through October 8, 2026, one row per sale, with the quarantine, price-parse and sale-to-list plausibility rules applied, the same rules as the BigQuery governed view. The lead window is the 90 days to October 8, 2026 (closings July 12 to October 8), compared with the same days of 2025; the 12-month figures are context. Houses are single-family homes; condos include townhouses. Price bands use the final list price on the MLS, not the sale price, and the issue says so wherever it switches. Over asking is the sale price against that list price; medians only, never averages. Cash share is of sales with buyer financing reported to the MLS; sales with no financing reported are left out of that denominator. Reliability follows the POTM Command thresholds for a 90-day window: 20 sales or more is strong, 10 to 19 is directional, fewer is anecdotal and is reported but not argued from. The $5 million and up condo band (10 sales) and the year-ago $3 million to $5 million condo band (18) are directional. General information, not a forecast, a valuation of any specific home, or legal, lending or tax advice.