Is the San Francisco condo market recovering?

It is warming, measurably. Condos crossed above asking in May 2026 (101.4% of list) for the first time in years, active inventory fell to 584 from 905 a year earlier, and the share selling over asking rose from about 40% to 57% year over year. But houses run 124% of list and 86% over asking in the same window, so condos remain the slower of the city's two speeds.

Do San Francisco condos sell over asking?

About 57% did in the 90 days through June 30, 2026, barely more than a coin flip, versus 86% of houses. It varies sharply by area: only 37 to 43% of SoMa, Mission Bay, and downtown condos sold over asking, and Van Ness corridor condos cleared about 98.7% of list.

Is now a good time to buy a condo in San Francisco?

Depends on your timeline and lane, but structurally: condos are where buyers still hold negotiating leverage in San Francisco, competition is warming off a low base, and two-bedroom rents near $5,500 have strengthened the own-versus-rent math. The building's HOA health matters as much as the unit. A five-plus-year horizon changes the answer more than the market does.

Why are SoMa and Mission Bay condos softer than the rest of the city?

Downtown-adjacent condo supply is deepest exactly where demand shifted after 2020, so those corridors carry the most negotiating room: 37 to 43% selling over asking versus 57% citywide for condos. That is what makes them the city's clearest buyer opportunity, and why pricing and patience matter most there for sellers.

What is the median San Francisco condo price?

About $1.30M over the 90 days through June 30, 2026, selling in roughly 15 days. Price per square foot reached $1,166 in May, climbing since January after six years of downward pressure.

The San Francisco Condo Market: Prices, Competition, and Where the Leverage Is

The direct answer: San Francisco runs a two-speed market, and condos are the slower lane, which cuts both ways. Over the 90 days through June 30, 2026, the typical house sold for about 124% of its asking price; the typical condo sold for about 101%. That gap is the whole story: houses are a competition, condos are a negotiation. And the condo lane is warming, not falling: condos crossed above asking in May for the first time in a long while.

The current read, data through July 11, 2026

Condo sale-to-list, 90 days through June 30: about 101.5% of list, versus 124.2% for houses.
Share of condos selling over asking: about 57%, up from about 40% in the same window a year earlier. Houses went from 78% to 86% in the same period.
Median condo sale: about $1.30M, in about 15 days.
May 2026 supply squeeze: active condo listings 584, down from 905 a year earlier; pending sales 305, up from 242. Price per square foot hit $1,166, climbing since January after six years of downward pressure.
The soft pocket: only 37 to 43% of SoMa, Mission Bay, and downtown condos sold over asking; the Van Ness corridor cleared about 98.7% of list.

The turn, and what actually turned

In May 2026 condos sold at 101.4% of list, above asking for the first time in years, on sharply tighter supply: 584 active listings against 905 a year before, with pendings up. The share of condos selling over asking jumped from roughly 40% to 57% year over year. That is a real recovery in competition, but keep it in proportion: 57% over asking is barely more than a coin flip, while houses run 86%. The condo market warmed; it did not catch up.

One market, very different lanes

Averages hide the split. Downtown, SoMa, and Mission Bay remain the city's clearest negotiation zone: only 37 to 43% of those condos sold over asking, and Van Ness corridor condos cleared about 98.7% of list even carrying heavier cash than the citywide condo average. Meanwhile west-side condos behave differently: Central Richmond condos sat near $1.43M, essentially flat, while Inner Sunset condos rose 17.4% to $1.375M, though on 23 sales, a thin sample worth watching rather than banking on.

The rent backdrop

Two-bedroom rents near $5,500, up roughly 20% in a year per the Zumper data cited in Issue #02, quietly strengthen the buy case for condos: the rent-versus-own math moved in ownership's favor faster than condo prices did.

What this means if you're buying

Condos are where a well-prepared buyer still has leverage in this city. With 57% selling over asking, negotiation is live: contingencies, credits, and time are all still on the table in the slower buildings, especially downtown. The building matters as much as the unit: HOA financials, reserves, and litigation history drive long-term cost, which is the subject of what HOA dues actually cover. And if a lower price point tempts you toward a TIC, understand the difference first: condo vs. TIC.

What this means if you're selling

Selling a condo is not like selling a house here, and pricing like a house is the classic mistake. With roughly half of condos negotiating below or at list, your lane's actual sale-to-list matters more than the citywide headline. Presentation and pricing to the building's real comps decide the outcome; see how to price your home and how to prepare it.

Methodology note

Every figure here comes from closed MLS sales, processed through Paulo's POTM data engine and first published in the blog issues cited above, each with its own data-through date. Medians, not averages. Data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and is subject to correction and revision.

The San Francisco condo market, explained

The turn, and what actually turned

One market, very different lanes

The rent backdrop

What this means if you're buying

What this means if you're selling

Related reading

Methodology note

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