POTM Blog Issue #24, September 22, 2026
The Second Season
Fall in San Francisco is not what is left over from spring. It is a second season with its own calendar: a September and October rush, a November thin-out, and a holiday market that looks weaker than it is. Here is what ten years of falls say buyers and sellers can expect, and what is different this year.
By Paulo Serna, San Francisco Real Estate Agent, Compass | Level Up Group · CA DRE# 02150409 · Published September 22, 2026
Data source Paulo’s Pulse, governed SFAR MLS data
Most people think of San Francisco as a spring market with a quiet fall. Ten years of data say otherwise. Fall is a second season with its own calendar, and it runs in three phases. Each one favors a different move, for buyers and for sellers.
This is the practical companion to Issue #23, which measured how thin this year's shelf is. Here the question is what the next three months usually look like, what that means for your plans, and where 2026 breaks the pattern.
When is the fall market in San Francisco?
From the start of September to about mid-October. In every one of the last ten years, the number of houses for sale peaked in September or October. In a typical year the shelf finished September 37% above August (the range: 10% to 63%), held most of that through October, fell back to about August's level by the end of November, and by the end of December was down to 38% to 54% of its fall peak. Condos follow the same shape.
Every year in numbers
| Year | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Dec as share of fall peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 408 | 560 | 549 | 427 | 258 | 46% |
| 2017 | 320 | 421 | 391 | 315 | 200 | 48% |
| 2018 | 426 | 581 | 560 | 518 | 315 | 54% |
| 2019 | 383 | 539 | 539 | 447 | 259 | 48% |
| 2020 | 634 | 708 | 762 | 622 | 402 | 53% |
| 2021 | 433 | 478 | 493 | 368 | 209 | 42% |
| 2022 | 353 | 486 | 475 | 376 | 220 | 45% |
| 2023 | 351 | 491 | 466 | 350 | 191 | 39% |
| 2024 | 257 | 419 | 376 | 280 | 164 | 39% |
| 2025 | 234 | 302 | 276 | 185 | 115 | 38% |
| 2026 | 152 |
Buying follows the shelf. On the ten-year average, October has more house closings than any other month of the year, about 254, ahead of June's 235 and May's 227. Those October closings are mostly September contracts. For houses, the busiest stretch of the year for deals is not spring. It is late September through October.
The three phases, and what each one favors
1. The second season (September to mid-October). The most homes to choose from all fall, and the most sales. For buyers, this is the widest selection until spring. For sellers, it is the most competition and the most demand at the same time. Houses that came on the market from mid-September to mid-October, 2016 to 2025, sold at a median 108.3% of asking in 15 days, against 111.6% in 13 days for houses listed in April and May. That is the fall cost for sellers: real, and small.
2. The thin-out (mid-October to Thanksgiving). Fewer new listings arrive, and the shelf shrinks back toward August's level. Houses listed from mid-October to mid-November sold at a median 110.1% of asking in 14 days, the best of the fall; my read is that they faced fewer rivals. It is also when older listings start to pile up: 40% of November house closings had sat more than three weeks.
3. The holidays (Thanksgiving to New Year). The fewest listings and the fewest sales. From 2016 to 2025, about 134 houses a year that eventually sold came on the market between mid-November and the end of December, about half the 257 of mid-September to mid-October. Those that sold did about as well as other fall listings: 108.8% of asking in 13 days. One caution: that count only sees homes that sold. A holiday listing that was pulled and relisted in January is not in it.
Do home prices drop in the San Francisco fall?
Not as a rule. Price per square foot for houses closing in October and November stayed within about 5% of that same year's spring in nine of the last ten years. The exception was 2022, down 14%, when mortgage rates doubled. Fall prices follow what the year is doing. In 2025, houses listed in the fall sold further over asking than spring listings did; in 2022, far less. Across the decade, the gap between a year's spring and its fall was usually smaller than the gap between one year and the next.
December is where the calendar seems to bite. Houses closing in December sold at a median 105.9% of asking, against 110.3% in October. But look at which houses are closing. In December, 47% of house sales had sat on the market more than three weeks, against 31% in October. The houses that sold quickly did just as well: those that sold within two weeks and closed in December got 115.7% of asking, and in October 115.6%. December's weaker median is mostly the fall's older listings finally selling.
So the December discount is mostly a discount on homes that have been sitting. That points to the most useful fact in this issue.
When does a San Francisco listing lose its premium?
At about three weeks, in any season. For houses listed in the fall from 2016 to 2025, those that sold in 8 to 14 days got a median 118.0% of asking. Those that took 22 to 35 days got 102.8%. At 36 to 60 days the median was asking price, and 43% sold under it. Past two months, 97.7%, with nearly two in three under asking. (The 8-to-14-day group sells highest because it holds the usual pattern: a week or so of showings, then an offer date.)
2026 is hotter at the fast end and just as ordinary at the slow end. Houses sold in 8 to 14 days this year went at 130.2% of asking. Houses that sat 36 to 60 days went at exactly asking, the same as the ten-year fall. About one house sale in six this year took more than three weeks. For condos it is four in ten, and past three weeks about seven in ten condos sold at or under asking.
The clock says more than the calendar. For buyers, the age of a listing says more about your room to negotiate than the month does. For sellers, in this record nearly all of the premium was paid in the first two to three weeks, and houses that sat past that sold near asking whether it was April or November. Sitting is usually a symptom, of price or condition, more than a cause, which is why pricing and preparation before the first day matter most.
What is different about fall 2026?
The shelf starts lower than any fall in ten years. At the end of August, InfoSparks counted 152 houses for sale, against a ten-year August median of 368. The fall wave has arrived: POTM Command's daily count went from 140 houses on August 31 to 222 on September 22, and condos from 336 to 415. In percentage terms that is a big wave, but it is 82 houses, on an unusually empty shelf. Issue #23 has the full supply picture.
Early September was hot. From September 1 to 21, houses closed at a median 128.6% of asking in 11 days, and 91% sold over asking (121 sales). Over the same days of 2025 it was 109.6% in 13 days. Condos went at 104.9% in 12 days, against exactly asking in 29 days a year ago (136 and 133 sales). These closings mostly reflect August contracts, and three weeks is a short read.
Mortgage rates went the other way. Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 6.95% on September 17, the highest in a year, up from 5.98% in late February and 6.26% a year ago. On a $1.6 million loan, principal and interest run about $10,591 a month at 6.95%, against $9,572 at 5.98%: about $1,019 more. How much that cools the bidding, I do not know yet. October and November closings will show it, and I will report them here.
What buyers and sellers can expect this fall
If you are buying: the next few weeks bring the most choice you will see until spring, so this is the time to tour widely and get your financing settled. Expect well-prepared houses to sell fast and above asking; this year, houses that sold in 8 to 14 days went at a median 130.2%. Your room is in the listings that have sat. Past three weeks, fall houses have sold at a median of asking over the last decade, and this year too. Watch the days-on-market count, and ask why a home is still there. Sometimes it is the price. Sometimes it is a fixable problem other buyers walked away from. If you can keep looking through the holidays, fewer homes means fewer rivals, and the older listings that remain are where the negotiating happens.
If you are selling: fall is a real window, not a consolation prize. Over ten years a fall listing gave up 1.5 to 3.4 points of overbid against spring, on median; the year's conditions moved results far more than that. What matters most is the first three weeks. Come on ready, priced to recent same-size sales nearby, so you sell inside that window. If the house cannot be ready by about mid-October, the holiday weeks are workable but thin, and waiting for the new year is a reasonable choice.
If you are deciding whether to sell at all: nothing in these numbers says you have to act this fall. If you need more time to get the house ready, or to decide, take it. For houses, this spring's overbid was the highest in the record back to 2016, and no one can promise the next spring repeats it, so waiting for spring is a choice to make for your own reasons, not a sure bet. Decide on your timeline, not the calendar's.
These are citywide numbers, and every neighborhood keeps its own calendar. Send me an address and I will run the same cut for your block.
By the numbers
| Measure | Houses | Condos and townhouses |
|---|---|---|
| For sale at the end of September, per 100 in August, 2016 to 2025 median (range) | 137 (110 to 163) | 131 (117 to 157) |
| For sale at the end of December, per 100 in August, median | 63 | 63 |
| December as a share of the fall peak, range over ten years | 38% to 54% | |
| Closings per year by month, ten-year average: October / June / May | 254 / 235 / 227 | 245 / 248 / 256 |
| Median sale-to-list, listed April to May, 2016 to 2025 | 111.6% in 13 days | 100.5% in 21 days |
| Listed mid-September to mid-October | 108.3% in 15 days | 100.0% in 28 days |
| Listed mid-October to mid-November | 110.1% in 14 days | 100.0% in 27 days |
| Listed mid-November to December | 108.8% in 13 days | 100.0% in 30 days |
| Sold listings per year, mid-September to mid-October debuts / mid-November to December debuts | 257 / 134 | 277 / 136 |
| Fall price per sq ft against the same year's spring, years within 5% | 9 of 10 (2022: −14%) | 8 of 10 (2020: −7%, 2022: −9%) |
| December closings: all sales / sold within two weeks | 105.9% / 115.7% | 100.0% / 103.8% |
| October closings: all sales / sold within two weeks | 110.3% / 115.6% | 100.5% / 106.7% |
| Share of December closings that sat more than three weeks (October) | 47% (31%) | 70% (48%) |
| Fall listings that sat past three weeks: median sale-to-list, share under asking | 100.0%, 44% | 99.3%, 53% |
| 2026 sales that sat past three weeks: share of all sales, median, share under asking | 17%, 100.3%, 37% | 40%, 99.2%, 53% |
| 2026 sales in 8 to 14 days, median sale-to-list | 130.2% | 112.0% |
| September 1 to 21, 2026: sale-to-list, days, share over asking (sales) | 128.6%, 11, 91% (121) | 104.9%, 12, 67% (136) |
| September 1 to 21, 2025, same measures | 109.6%, 13, 74% (103) | 100.0%, 29, 30% (133) |
| For sale on the daily MLS count, August 31 / September 22, 2026 | 140 / 222 | 336 / 415 |
| 30-year mortgage rate, Freddie Mac: September 17, 2026 / February 26, 2026 / a year earlier | 6.95% / 5.98% / 6.26% | |
| Monthly principal and interest on a $1.6 million, 30-year loan at 6.95% / 5.98% | $10,591 / $9,572 |
Frequently asked questions
Is fall a good time to sell a house in San Francisco?
It is a real selling season. From 2016 to 2025, houses for sale peaked in September or October every year, and October had more house closings than any other month on average. Houses listed from mid-September to mid-October sold at a median 108.3% of asking in 15 days, against 111.6% in 13 days for April and May listings: a fall cost of a few points, smaller than the swings from one year to the next. What matters most is selling in the first three weeks, when nearly all of the premium is paid.
Do home prices drop in the fall in San Francisco?
Not as a rule. Price per square foot for houses closing in October and November stayed within 5% of the same year's spring in nine of the ten years from 2016 to 2025. The exception was 2022, down 14%, when mortgage rates doubled. Fall prices follow the year's conditions more than the calendar.
Is December a bad time to buy or sell a home in San Francisco?
December has the fewest listings of the fall, with the shelf at 38% to 54% of its fall peak. Its lower median sale-to-list (105.9% for houses from 2016 to 2025, against 110.3% in October) is mostly older listings finally selling: 47% of December house closings had sat more than three weeks. Houses that sold within two weeks and closed in December got 115.7% of asking, the same as October's 115.6%. For buyers, December's room to negotiate is mostly in homes that have been sitting.
When does a San Francisco listing start selling under asking?
Around three weeks. For houses listed in the fall from 2016 to 2025, those sold in 8 to 14 days went at a median 118.0% of asking; 22 to 35 days, 102.8%; 36 to 60 days, exactly asking, with 43% selling under; 61 days or more, 97.7%. Condos cross asking sooner: past three weeks, the median condo sold at or just under asking. In 2026 the pattern holds: houses past three weeks sold at a median 100.3% of asking.
What is the best time in the fall to buy a home in San Francisco?
For choice, late September through October, when the shelf has usually been at its fullest. For negotiating room, any time you find a well-located home that has sat past three weeks, which happens more often in November and December. Homes that sell in their first two weeks have sold above asking in every month of the record, December included.
What will the San Francisco housing market do in fall 2026?
No one can say for sure, and this is not a forecast. It starts from the thinnest shelf in ten years: 152 houses for sale at the end of August, 222 on the POTM Command daily count by September 22. Houses that closed September 1 to 21 sold at a median 128.6% of asking. The 30-year mortgage rate was 6.95% on September 17, the highest in a year, which adds about $1,019 a month to a $1.6 million loan against February's 5.98%. In each of the last ten years the shelf peaked in September or October and by December was 38% to 54% of that peak; whether 2026 follows is not known yet.
AI Corridor Scoreboard
One reading per issue on the city's softest segment, the condos near the new AI offices, so you can watch the turn as it happens.
| Issue | Date | Reading | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| #24 (this issue) | Sep 22, 2026 | Into the fall, the corridor holds at asking. Over the 30 days to September 21, 52 condos sold in South of Market, South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba Buena, the same count as a year earlier, at a median exactly at asking (97.9% a year ago) in 28 days. The share selling under asking fell from 64% to 46%. | Steady, and still the city's best room to negotiate. |
| #23 | Sep 15, 2026 | Buyers came back and the corridor is still at asking. From June 1 to September 11, 217 condos sold in South of Market, South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba Buena, against 151 over the same days of 2025, at a median exactly at asking (97.6% a year ago) in 25 days (49 a year ago). The share selling under asking fell from 71% to 39%. | Still the negotiator's end of the city, with less room than a year ago. |
Show the 20 earlier readings
| Issue | Date | Reading | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| #22 | Sep 2, 2026 | The steepest second bedroom in the city. Corridor one-bedrooms sold at a median $702,500 and two-bedrooms at $1,350,000 over the last 12 months, a $647,500 step on 338 and 329 sales, with both rungs still at or just under asking (99.7% and 99.6%) in 34 and 23 median days. | The corridor still negotiates, and the one-bedroom negotiates longest. |
| #21 | Aug 30, 2026 | Still the calm end of the map. South Beach at asking on 167 sales with 29.9% over; SoMa, Mission Bay and Van Ness / Civic Center at asking; Yerba Buena 1.7% below. Meanwhile 56.6% of condos citywide now clear asking, up from 36.4% a year ago. | The negotiator's end of the market, with the floor rising underneath it. |
| #20 | Aug 25, 2026 | Two markets, one label. Corridor towers still at or below asking over the past six months (South Beach at asking on 168 sales, Yerba Buena -2.2%) while low-dues flats citywide cleared 10%+ over in 59.9% of sales. | Check the dues before you plan the offer. |
| #19 | Aug 18, 2026 | Where cash buys the most and shouts the least. Corridor condos ran 41.7% cash in the past 12 months, the heaviest concentration this series tracks, yet cash and financed closed at the same price, 99.2% versus 99.3% of asking. Cash's whole edge here is the clock: 20 median days on market against 39 financed. | Financed buyers give up nothing on price here; they pay in patience. |
| #17 | Aug 9, 2026 | Zero, which is the cleanest reading this scoreboard has produced. Across 368 corridor condo closings so far in 2026, not one sold $1,000,000 over asking, and the typical one closed slightly under asking: South Beach 0.7% below on 183 sales, South of Market 1.0% below on 79, Yerba Buena 2.4% below on 53, Mission Bay exactly at asking on 53. In an issue about where the overbidding is, the corridor is where it is not. | Buyer opening holds, and this issue measures exactly how wide it is. |
| #16 | Aug 6, 2026 | Flat in every window, which this issue argues is the whole point. South Beach condos read 100.0% of asking at 30, 90 and 180 days and 99.0% over the trailing year. South of Market reads 99.4, 99.8, 99.6 and 99.0. Four windows, one answer. Every house lane in this issue moved when the window moved; the corridor did not, and a segment that reads the same no matter how you slice it is a segment that is not turning. | Buyer opening holds, and now it is measured four ways instead of one. |
| #15 | Aug 2, 2026 | Unchanged at the bottom of the same ladder. This issue extended the over-asking gradient into small multifamily, and the corridor still anchors the low end: right at asking, while two-unit buildings cleared 11.7% over and houses 23.8%. The ordering is by how much a property lives like a house, and a corridor tower is the furthest thing from one. | Buyer opening holds, and this issue explains why it persists. |
| #14 | Jul 29, 2026 | Read on supply this time, not price. Citywide condo and townhome months of supply fell from 3.9 to 1.7 in a year and active listings from 772 to 480, so even the calmest lane in the city now offers less to choose from. This issue did not re-measure corridor pricing. | Buyer opening holds on price; the shelf behind it is thinner. |
| #13 | Jul 25, 2026 | Graduated to the essay. Back at asking for the first time since 2022, after three springs about 1% below it, and the clock changed: median market time fell from 38 days to 19 and the share selling over asking roughly doubled, from the low twenties to the mid forties. Price at par, speed doubled. | Negotiating room intact; the window now narrows in speed, not price. |
| #12 | Jul 21, 2026 | Still the calm corner, and it proves the point. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold right at list, about 100%, with only 31% over asking on 836 sales, while mid-priced houses cleared 123 to 127% of list. Condos rarely get listed low to start a war, so the overbid never appears. | Buyer leverage holds where the list-low tactic is not used. |
| #11 | Jul 17, 2026 | Unmoved by the house story. While overbidding ran one tier below the trophy core, the corridor and condo core cleared near asking, and the two flat lanes the field named as spillover candidates, Hayes Valley and Lower Pacific Heights, stayed calm in closed data. | Still the clearest buyer opening in the city. |
| #10 | Jul 14, 2026 | Still soft while the headline is elsewhere. June's million-over-asking story is a west-side and central house market, not the AI-corridor towers. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay and South Beach, ran about 10% below last year even as volume climbed. Activity returns to the corridor; pricing has not. | Still the clearest buyer opening in the city. |
| #09 | Jul 10, 2026 | Still the soft floor at the halfway mark. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold near 100% of list with only about 36% over asking on roughly 290 sales this year, while citywide houses ran near 121% of list. The widest lane in the city stays open. | Clearest buyer opportunity holds into the second half. |
| #08 | Jul 5, 2026 | Still the soft floor even as the top books records. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold near 100% of list with heavy cash and light competition, while $5M+ houses set a decade volume record at about 112% of list on roughly 64% cash. Cash without a crowd here. | Buyer opportunity intact where the crowds are not. |
| #06 | Jun 25, 2026 | Still the calm corner while the house middle runs hot. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold right at list, about 100%, with only 35% over asking on 300 sales, against the $1.5M to $3M house band at 122 to 125% of list. | Buyer opportunity holds where the bidding wars are not. |
| #05 | Jun 21, 2026 | Cash, not heat. Corridor condos carry heavier cash than the citywide condo average, about 42% versus 37%, yet still sell near 98.7% of list with only about 20% over asking versus 45% citywide. Cash concentrates here; competition does not. | Negotiating room for financed buyers. |
| #04 | Jun 17, 2026 | Still the soft floor while houses raced ahead. Corridor near 98 to 99% of list versus 103.8% citywide and about 123% for single-family in the last 30 days. | Buyer opportunity holds; the gap to houses only widened. |
| #03 | Jun 13, 2026 | Still the bottom of the overbid table. Corridor sale-to-list at about 98 to 99% versus 103.6% citywide, trailing year. | Opportunity intact for negotiators. |
| #02 | Jun 10, 2026 | Turning at the edges. Citywide condos hit 101.4% of list in May; inventory fell to 584 from 905. The corridor towers remain the soft end. | Window narrowing, not closed. |
| #01 | Jun 7, 2026 | Soft. Only 37 to 43% of SoMa, Mission Bay, and downtown condos sold over asking. | Clearest buyer opportunity in the city. |
- Fall is a second season, not the leftovers of spring. Houses for sale peaked in September or October in every year from 2016 to 2025, a median 37% above August, and October has more house closings than any other month on the ten-year average (about 254 a year).
- Three phases: the second season (September to mid-October), with the most homes and the most buyers; the thin-out (mid-October to Thanksgiving), when the shelf drops back toward August; the holidays, when the shelf falls to 38% to 54% of its fall peak.
- Fall costs sellers a little, and the year costs more. Houses listed in the fall sold at a median 108% to 110% of asking, 1.5 to 3.4 points below April and May listings. Fall price per square foot stayed within about 5% of the same year's spring in nine of ten years; the exception was 2022, when rates doubled.
- December's weaker numbers are mostly older listings clearing. Houses that sold within two weeks and closed in December got 115.7% of asking, against 115.6% in October, while 47% of December house closings had sat more than three weeks.
- The clock says more than the calendar. Fall houses sold in 8 to 14 days went at 118.0% of asking; past three weeks the median was asking, with 44% selling under. In 2026 the fast end is hotter (130.2%) and the slow end the same (100.3% past three weeks).
- Fall 2026 starts on the thinnest shelf in ten years (152 houses in August, 222 on the daily count by September 22), with early-September houses at 128.6% of asking and the 30-year rate at 6.95%, the highest in a year. How much the rate cools bidding will show in October and November closings.
Days on market, sale-to-list and median price for every San Francisco neighborhood are live in the market explorer, refreshed weekly. Check how long homes in your neighborhood are sitting before you set a price or an offer.
Sources and further reading
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, weekly 30-year fixed average
- Issue #23: Empty Shelves, how thin this year's shelf is
- Issue #16: A Window Is a Memory, why recent closings describe last month's contracts
- Topic: San Francisco overbidding, the whole question in one place
- Selling in San Francisco, starting with whether you should
- Buying in San Francisco, the whole process
- How I read the San Francisco market, the method behind these figures
Methodology and sources
Sources, each with its own date. (1) SFAR InfoSparks, San Francisco County, monthly series in the POTM Command workbook, data as of September 1, 2026: single-family and condo and townhouse listings for sale at month end, August to December, 2016 to 2025, indexed to each year's August. (2) POTM Command governed MLS closings pulled from BigQuery on September 22, 2026, 63,017 governed closed sales since 2016 through September 21, parcel-deduplicated, with the quarantine, price-parse and sale-to-list plausibility rules applied; medians only, never averages. The MLS record does not keep a usable listing date for past sales, so a listing's debut is estimated as the closing date minus days on market minus 20 days, the median time from contract to closing measured on 2026 sales (19 days for houses, 20 for condos); a sale's estimated debut can be off by a week or two either way. "Fall listings" are homes whose estimated debut fell between August 16 and November 15. Every figure describes homes that sold: listings that were withdrawn or expired are not in the record before June 2026, so the data cannot say how often a fall or holiday listing failed to sell. (3) POTM Command's daily MLS drops, counting distinct listings with an active status each day; at the end of August it ran about 8% under InfoSparks for houses (140 against 152) and about 1% for condos (336 against 340), so it is shown only against itself. (4) Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed average, weekly through September 17, 2026; the payment figures are standard amortization on the stated loan and exclude taxes and insurance. Single-family and condo and townhouse figures are kept separate; TICs and 2-4 unit buildings are left out of this issue. General information, not a forecast, a valuation of any specific home, or legal, lending or tax advice.
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