POTM Blog Issue #27, October 17, 2026
The Condo Turn, Four Months Later
In June I wrote that the San Francisco condo market had finally turned, and that the towers of the AI corridor were the soft end and the real opportunity. Four months of closings later, here is the grade: the turn was bigger than I said, the soft end is still the soft end, and about half of the opportunity is gone.
By Paulo Serna, San Francisco Real Estate Agent, Compass | Level Up Group · CA DRE# 02150409 · Published October 17, 2026
Data source Paulo’s Pulse, governed SFAR MLS data
Back in June, the second issue of this blog was called The Condo Turn. Its argument was that San Francisco's condo market had finally stopped sliding, and it closed with a caution: the window for condo buyers was narrowing but not closed, and the AI-corridor towers were the soft end. Issue #01 had named them, South of Market, Mission Bay and downtown, and went a step further: it called them the real opportunity.
Those were predictions, and four months of closings are enough to grade them. So this issue does that, on the same governed data as every other issue. The corridor below is the one this blog has tracked in every issue since: South of Market, South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba Buena. Everything else is the rest of the city.
Call one: the condo turn. Right, and too small
In the 90 days to October 15, 607 condos closed in San Francisco. 62% sold over asking. In the same days of 2025 it was 33%. The median condo sold at 102.5% of asking in 14 days, against exactly asking in 32 days a year ago, and the median price per square foot rose from $999 to $1,153.
That is not a market that stopped sliding. That is a market that changed character. And almost all of the change happened outside the towers. Condos in the rest of the city sold over asking 71% of the time in these 90 days, at a median 106.6% of asking, in 13 days. Measured over the same weeks of every year since 2016, no fall comes close except 2019, at 68%. Year to date, those condos sold at a median $1,144 a square foot, the highest of the decade for these months.
In June the honest read was "turning." Four months later the honest read is that, outside the corridor, a San Francisco condo now trades more like a house did a few years ago: most of them draw more than one buyer, and the list price is a starting point.
Call two: the corridor is the soft end. Still true
The corridor moved too, from a market that negotiated down to one that holds at asking. In the twelve months the June issues were written on, 62% of corridor condos sold under asking. In the same 90 days of 2025, 67% did. In the 90 days to October 15, 35% did, while 27% sold at exactly asking and 39% over. The median corridor condo sold at exactly its asking price in 26 days, against 98.2% of asking in 44 days a year ago.
Against the rest of the city, though, the corridor is further behind than it was. A year ago the gap in the over-asking share between the two was 25 points. Now it is 32. In 2019 it was 22. The rest of the city is past its 2019 high; the corridor, at 39% over asking, is back to roughly where it stood in 2017 and 2018, and its median price per square foot, $1,055 this year, is still about 11% below 2019. The soft end is still the soft end.
The rest of the city
71% / 13
of condos sold over asking / median days on market, last 90 days
Median 106.6% of asking, $1,177 a square foot. A year ago: 39% over asking, 28 days, $1,016. The June window here is closed
The corridor
39% / 35%
of corridor condos sold over asking / under asking, last 90 days
Median exactly at asking in 26 days, $1,055 a square foot. A year ago: 14% over, 67% under, 44 days, $959. Still the city's room to negotiate, at half the size
Inside the corridor, four different answers
"The corridor" is four neighborhoods, and the last four months treated them differently.
Mission Bay flipped. In the same 90 days of 2025, three in four of its condos sold under asking. In these 90 days, 63% sold over asking and 20% under, in a median 11 days, on 30 sales. Its median price per square foot went from $1,106 to $1,238. Whatever the June read said about Mission Bay, it no longer behaves like the soft end.
South Beach, the biggest market in the corridor with 66 sales, moved to asking. Under-asking sales fell from 75% to 36%, the median sale came in at exactly asking in 22 days instead of 49, and the median price per square foot rose from $1,048 to $1,261. Cash paid for nearly half of these sales.
South of Market moved less, because it had less to move: it already sold at a median of asking a year ago. Under-asking sales fell from 45% to 32%.
Yerba Buena is where the June call still holds best. 47% of its condos sold under asking, the median sale took 56 days, and the median price per square foot, $864, was slightly lower than a year ago.
Call three: the real opportunity. About half gone
The opportunity in June was simple: in the corridor, most sellers took less than asking and buyers had time. Six in ten corridor sales closed under asking, in about a month. That has roughly halved. Today a third of corridor sellers take less than asking, a quarter take exactly asking, and the rest get more. A buyer who wants room to negotiate still finds it here and almost nowhere else in the city, where only 17% of condos sold under asking. It is a smaller room than it was.
Some of the June opportunity was simply taken. Buyers who wrote offers in the corridor this summer did it against a shelf that was emptying, which is the next part of the story.
Why it moved: the shelf
InfoSparks, the count this site uses for inventory, showed 426 condos and townhomes for sale in San Francisco in September 2026. That is the fewest for any September since the series begins in 2005. A year ago it was 653. Buyers did not leave: 257 condos and townhomes were pending in September, against 258 a year earlier. The same number of buyers met a third fewer listings, which is the same mechanism Issue #23 found for the whole market.
The shelf is not empty evenly. District 9, which holds the corridor, had 205 condos and townhomes for sale, almost half the city's total. Every other district combined had 221, against 365 a year ago. That is the simplest explanation for the split in this issue: outside the corridor there is almost nothing to buy, and the corridor is where the remaining choice is.
And the rate hike?
Issue #25 asked what the September 16 rate hike would do. Through October 15 the closings do not show it. Condos that closed in the first half of October sold at a median 108.3% of asking, 76% over, against exactly asking and 42% over in the same days of 2025. In the corridor, 48% of the 23 October closings sold over asking. Most of those contracts were written in September. If the hike changes the condo market, November and December closings are where it will show.
What it means if you are buying a condo
Outside the corridor, plan the way a house buyer plans: assume competition, set a ceiling before you see the place, and come in with clean terms. Seven in ten sold over asking in these 90 days, and the median sale cleared asking by 6.6%.
In the corridor, a full-price offer is a real offer, and in Yerba Buena and parts of South Beach a below-asking offer is still a conversation. Use the time the market gives you: a median 26 days on market means a building's dues, reserves and recent sales can be read before you write. Issue #20 showed why the dues matter so much in exactly these towers.
What it means if you are selling a condo
Outside the corridor, the market is giving condo sellers terms it has not given since 2019: 13 days and a median 6.6% over asking. Priced near the recent sales, a condo there has been drawing a crowd.
In the corridor, price to the comps and expect the sale to land near them. A third of corridor sellers took less than asking, and the median sale took 26 days. The condos that sat were the ones priced for a crowd that the corridor does not reliably produce. If you own in the corridor and do not need to sell, the honest read is that prices there are still below 2019 and the turn has only partly reached your building. That is a reason to look at the numbers for your own building before deciding, not a reason to hurry.
AI Corridor Scoreboard
One reading per issue on the city's softest segment, the condos near the new AI offices, so you can watch the turn as it happens.
| Issue | Date | Reading | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| #27 (this issue) | Oct 17, 2026 | The corridor is still the city's negotiating room, and the room is smaller. Over the 30 days to October 15, 57 condos sold in South of Market, South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba Buena, the same count as a year earlier, at a median exactly at asking (99.4% a year ago) in 30 days (31), with a third selling under asking (58%). Cash paid for 30% of them, down from 47%. | At asking, a third under, and the room half what it was in June. |
| #26 | Oct 10, 2026 | The corridor is the exception to this issue, and it is holding. Over the 30 days to October 8, 51 condos sold in South of Market, South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba Buena, against 62 a year earlier, at a median exactly at asking (98.7% a year ago) in 30 days (27), with 43% selling under asking (61%). Cash paid for 37% of them, down from 59%, which means financed buyers are coming back to the one part of the city that still negotiates. | At asking, fewer sales, and financed buyers back in the room. |
Show the 23 earlier readings
| Issue | Date | Reading | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| #25 | Oct 1, 2026 | The corridor has not felt the hike yet, and it is the one place in the city where cash already runs the room. Over the 30 days to September 25, 46 condos sold in South of Market, South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba Buena, against 51 a year earlier, at a median exactly at asking (98.3% a year ago) in 30 days (22), with half selling under asking (65%). Cash paid for 41% of them. Contracts written after September 16 close in October. | Holding at asking, with more room to negotiate than anywhere else in the city. |
| #24 | Sep 22, 2026 | Into the fall, the corridor holds at asking. Over the 30 days to September 21, 52 condos sold in South of Market, South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba Buena, the same count as a year earlier, at a median exactly at asking (97.9% a year ago) in 28 days. The share selling under asking fell from 64% to 46%. | Steady, and still the city's best room to negotiate. |
| #23 | Sep 15, 2026 | Buyers came back and the corridor is still at asking. From June 1 to September 11, 217 condos sold in South of Market, South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba Buena, against 151 over the same days of 2025, at a median exactly at asking (97.6% a year ago) in 25 days (49 a year ago). The share selling under asking fell from 71% to 39%. | Still the negotiator's end of the city, with less room than a year ago. |
| #22 | Sep 2, 2026 | The steepest second bedroom in the city. Corridor one-bedrooms sold at a median $702,500 and two-bedrooms at $1,350,000 over the last 12 months, a $647,500 step on 338 and 329 sales, with both rungs still at or just under asking (99.7% and 99.6%) in 34 and 23 median days. | The corridor still negotiates, and the one-bedroom negotiates longest. |
| #21 | Aug 30, 2026 | Still the calm end of the map. South Beach at asking on 167 sales with 29.9% over; SoMa, Mission Bay and Van Ness / Civic Center at asking; Yerba Buena 1.7% below. Meanwhile 56.6% of condos citywide now clear asking, up from 36.4% a year ago. | The negotiator's end of the market, with the floor rising underneath it. |
| #20 | Aug 25, 2026 | Two markets, one label. Corridor towers still at or below asking over the past six months (South Beach at asking on 168 sales, Yerba Buena -2.2%) while low-dues flats citywide cleared 10%+ over in 59.9% of sales. | Check the dues before you plan the offer. |
| #19 | Aug 18, 2026 | Where cash buys the most and shouts the least. Corridor condos ran 41.7% cash in the past 12 months, the heaviest concentration this series tracks, yet cash and financed closed at the same price, 99.2% versus 99.3% of asking. Cash's whole edge here is the clock: 20 median days on market against 39 financed. | Financed buyers give up nothing on price here; they pay in patience. |
| #17 | Aug 9, 2026 | Zero, which is the cleanest reading this scoreboard has produced. Across 368 corridor condo closings so far in 2026, not one sold $1,000,000 over asking, and the typical one closed slightly under asking: South Beach 0.7% below on 183 sales, South of Market 1.0% below on 79, Yerba Buena 2.4% below on 53, Mission Bay exactly at asking on 53. In an issue about where the overbidding is, the corridor is where it is not. | Buyer opening holds, and this issue measures exactly how wide it is. |
| #16 | Aug 6, 2026 | Flat in every window, which this issue argues is the whole point. South Beach condos read 100.0% of asking at 30, 90 and 180 days and 99.0% over the trailing year. South of Market reads 99.4, 99.8, 99.6 and 99.0. Four windows, one answer. Every house lane in this issue moved when the window moved; the corridor did not, and a segment that reads the same no matter how you slice it is a segment that is not turning. | Buyer opening holds, and now it is measured four ways instead of one. |
| #15 | Aug 2, 2026 | Unchanged at the bottom of the same ladder. This issue extended the over-asking gradient into small multifamily, and the corridor still anchors the low end: right at asking, while two-unit buildings cleared 11.7% over and houses 23.8%. The ordering is by how much a property lives like a house, and a corridor tower is the furthest thing from one. | Buyer opening holds, and this issue explains why it persists. |
| #14 | Jul 29, 2026 | Read on supply this time, not price. Citywide condo and townhome months of supply fell from 3.9 to 1.7 in a year and active listings from 772 to 480, so even the calmest lane in the city now offers less to choose from. This issue did not re-measure corridor pricing. | Buyer opening holds on price; the shelf behind it is thinner. |
| #13 | Jul 25, 2026 | Graduated to the essay. Back at asking for the first time since 2022, after three springs about 1% below it, and the clock changed: median market time fell from 38 days to 19 and the share selling over asking roughly doubled, from the low twenties to the mid forties. Price at par, speed doubled. | Negotiating room intact; the window now narrows in speed, not price. |
| #12 | Jul 21, 2026 | Still the calm corner, and it proves the point. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold right at list, about 100%, with only 31% over asking on 836 sales, while mid-priced houses cleared 123 to 127% of list. Condos rarely get listed low to start a war, so the overbid never appears. | Buyer leverage holds where the list-low tactic is not used. |
| #11 | Jul 17, 2026 | Unmoved by the house story. While overbidding ran one tier below the trophy core, the corridor and condo core cleared near asking, and the two flat lanes the field named as spillover candidates, Hayes Valley and Lower Pacific Heights, stayed calm in closed data. | Still the clearest buyer opening in the city. |
| #10 | Jul 14, 2026 | Still soft while the headline is elsewhere. June's million-over-asking story is a west-side and central house market, not the AI-corridor towers. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay and South Beach, ran about 10% below last year even as volume climbed. Activity returns to the corridor; pricing has not. | Still the clearest buyer opening in the city. |
| #09 | Jul 10, 2026 | Still the soft floor at the halfway mark. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold near 100% of list with only about 36% over asking on roughly 290 sales this year, while citywide houses ran near 121% of list. The widest lane in the city stays open. | Clearest buyer opportunity holds into the second half. |
| #08 | Jul 5, 2026 | Still the soft floor even as the top books records. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold near 100% of list with heavy cash and light competition, while $5M+ houses set a decade volume record at about 112% of list on roughly 64% cash. Cash without a crowd here. | Buyer opportunity intact where the crowds are not. |
| #06 | Jun 25, 2026 | Still the calm corner while the house middle runs hot. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold right at list, about 100%, with only 35% over asking on 300 sales, against the $1.5M to $3M house band at 122 to 125% of list. | Buyer opportunity holds where the bidding wars are not. |
| #05 | Jun 21, 2026 | Cash, not heat. Corridor condos carry heavier cash than the citywide condo average, about 42% versus 37%, yet still sell near 98.7% of list with only about 20% over asking versus 45% citywide. Cash concentrates here; competition does not. | Negotiating room for financed buyers. |
| #04 | Jun 17, 2026 | Still the soft floor while houses raced ahead. Corridor near 98 to 99% of list versus 103.8% citywide and about 123% for single-family in the last 30 days. | Buyer opportunity holds; the gap to houses only widened. |
| #03 | Jun 13, 2026 | Still the bottom of the overbid table. Corridor sale-to-list at about 98 to 99% versus 103.6% citywide, trailing year. | Opportunity intact for negotiators. |
| #02 | Jun 10, 2026 | Turning at the edges. Citywide condos hit 101.4% of list in May; inventory fell to 584 from 905. The corridor towers remain the soft end. | Window narrowing, not closed. |
| #01 | Jun 7, 2026 | Soft. Only 37 to 43% of SoMa, Mission Bay, and downtown condos sold over asking. | Clearest buyer opportunity in the city. |
By the numbers
| Measure, 90 days to October 15, 2026 unless noted | Corridor condos | Rest of the city, condos |
|---|---|---|
| Closings, 2026 / same days of 2025 | 170 / 156 | 437 / 453 |
| Share sold over asking, 2026 / 2025 | 39% / 14% | 71% / 39% |
| Share sold at asking, 2026 / 2025 | 27% / 19% | 12% / 19% |
| Share sold under asking, 2026 / 2025 | 35% / 67% | 17% / 42% |
| Median sale price against asking, 2026 / 2025 | 100.0% / 98.2% | 106.6% / 100.0% |
| Median days on market, 2026 / 2025 | 26 / 44 | 13 / 28 |
| Median sale price, 2026 / 2025 | $1,107,500 / $1,020,000 | $1,400,000 / $1,125,000 |
| Median price per square foot, 2026 / 2025 | $1,055 / $959 | $1,177 / $1,016 |
| Cash share of reported financing, 2026 / 2025 | 35% / 40% | 34% / 29% |
| June baseline, 12 months to May 31, 2026: share over / under asking, days | 18% / 62%, 34 | 52% / 33%, 19 |
| Share sold over asking, same 90 days of 2019 (the previous fall high) | 46% | 68% |
| Median price per square foot, January 1 to October 15: 2019 / 2025 / 2026 | $1,189 / $932 / $1,055 | $1,131 / $1,017 / $1,144 |
| 30 days to October 15, 2026: share over / under asking, median against asking, days, sales | 42% / 33%, 100.0%, 30, 57 | 83% / 10%, 114.4%, 13, 161 |
| Closings October 1 to 15, 2026 / 2025: share over asking | 48% / 30% | 83% / 45% |
| Corridor by subdistrict, share over / under asking, days, sales: Mission Bay | 63% / 20%, 11, 30 | |
| South Beach | 32% / 36%, 22, 66 | |
| South of Market | 39% / 32%, 34, 38 | |
| Yerba Buena | 31% / 47%, 56, 36 | |
| All San Francisco condos: share over asking, median against asking, days, 2026 / 2025 | 62%, 102.5%, 14 / 33%, 100.0%, 32 | |
| Condos and townhomes for sale, September 2026 / 2025 (InfoSparks) | 205 / 288 (District 9) | 221 / 365 (other districts) |
| Pending condos and townhomes, September 2026 / 2025 (InfoSparks) | 98 / 87 (District 9) | 159 / 171 (other districts) |
- The June call that condos had turned was right and too small. In the 90 days to October 15, 2026, 62% of San Francisco condos sold over asking, against 33% a year earlier, at a median 102.5% of asking in 14 days (32). Median price per square foot rose from $999 to $1,153.
- Outside the corridor of South of Market, South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba Buena, 71% of condos sold over asking at a median 106.6% of asking in 13 days, the highest share for these weeks in any year since at least 2016 (2019 was 68%). Year to date, those condos sold at a median $1,144 a square foot, above every year in the decade.
- The June call that the corridor was the soft end still holds. Corridor condos sold at a median exactly at asking in 26 days, with 39% over and 35% under. The share selling under asking fell from 67% a year ago and from 62% in the twelve months the June issues were written on.
- Inside the corridor the turn is uneven. Mission Bay flipped: 63% over asking in 11 days, 20% under. South Beach and South of Market moved to asking. Yerba Buena is where the room is widest, 47% under asking in 56 days.
- Supply explains most of it. InfoSparks counted 426 condos and townhomes for sale in September 2026, the fewest for any September since 2005, against 653 a year ago, while pending sales held at 257 against 258. Almost half of what is for sale sits in District 9, which holds the corridor.
- The September 16 rate hike does not show yet. Condos that closed October 1 to 15 sold at a median 108.3% of asking, 76% over, against 100.0% and 42% a year earlier.
Sale-to-list, days on market and median price for every San Francisco neighborhood, including each corridor subdistrict, are live in the market explorer, refreshed weekly.
Sources and further reading
- Issue #02: The Condo Turn, the June call this issue grades
- Issue #01: The AI-Era Spring Market, where the corridor was first called the soft end
- Issue #20: The HOA Line, why dues split the condo market
- Issue #23: Empty Shelves, the supply story behind the bids
- Issue #26: The Price of Winning, condos by asking price
- Topic: the San Francisco condo market
- Topic: house, condo, or TIC, three different markets
- How I read the San Francisco market, the method behind these figures
- How I read the San Francisco market, the method behind these figures
Methodology and sources
POTM Command governed MLS closings, October 16, 2026 export: 63,452 deduplicated closed sales in San Francisco from January 1, 2016 through October 15, 2026, one row per sale, with the quarantine, price-parse and sale-to-list plausibility rules applied, the same rules as the BigQuery governed view. The lead window is the 90 days to October 15, 2026 (closings July 18 to October 15), compared with the same days of every year since 2016; the 30-day and year-to-date figures are context. Condos include townhouses. The corridor is South of Market, South Beach, Mission Bay and Yerba Buena, the same four MLS subdistricts as the AI Corridor Scoreboard in every issue; the rest of the city is every other condo. The June baseline is the twelve months June 1, 2025 to May 31, 2026, the data the June issues were written on, re-measured here on governed closings. Over and under asking compare the sale price with the final list price; medians only, never averages. Active and pending counts are InfoSparks (condos and townhomes, all San Francisco districts, monthly, data as of October 2), which governs inventory counts on this site. Reliability follows the POTM Command thresholds for a 90-day window: 20 sales or more is strong, 10 to 19 is directional, fewer is anecdotal and is not argued from. Mission Bay in 2025 (17 sales) is directional; the October 1 to 15 corridor figures (23 sales over two weeks) are read as directional. General information, not a forecast, a valuation of any specific home, or legal, lending or tax advice.
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