POTM Blog Issue #17, August 9, 2026
The Overbid Map Is Not the Heat Map
A million dollars over asking sounds like the loudest possible statement a market can make. Read 160 of them together and they say something quieter and more useful: the places that produce seven-figure gaps and the places where buyers compete hardest are two different maps. Confusing them is the most expensive avoidable mistake in pricing.
By Paulo Serna, San Francisco Real Estate Agent, Compass | Level Up Group · CA DRE# 02150409 · Published August 9, 2026
Data source Paulo’s Pulse, governed SFAR MLS data
So far this year, 160 San Francisco homes have closed at least a million dollars above their asking price. They are spread across 46 neighborhoods. Together they closed $231,423,987 above list.
That sounds like a story about a market losing its mind. It mostly is not. When you put all 160 next to each other, they say something quieter, and more useful to anyone about to price a house.
The list of neighborhoods that produce seven-figure overbids is close to a list of neighborhoods with expensive houses. It is not a list of the neighborhoods where buyers are competing hardest. Those are two different maps, and most of the trouble in pricing comes from reading the first one as if it were the second.
By the numbers
| District | Typical sale vs asking | Closings 2026 | Sales $1M+ over | Share of its closings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| District 2, Central West | +32.7% | 281 | 11 | 3.9% |
| District 4, Twin Peaks West | +18.8% | 215 | 15 | 7.0% |
| District 1, Northwest | +17.7% | 187 | 24 | 12.8% |
| District 5, Central | +16.6% | 458 | 52 | 11.4% |
| District 10, Southeast | +13.9% | 288 | 0 | 0.0% |
| District 3, Southwest | +13.1% | 104 | 1 | 1.0% |
| District 7, North | +6.7% | 280 | 26 | 9.3% |
| District 6, Central North | +6.2% | 173 | 7 | 4.0% |
| District 8, Northeast | +0.0% | 335 | 6 | 1.8% |
| District 9, Central East | +0.0% | 698 | 18 | 2.6% |
The map that gets mistaken for the other one
Look at the two ends of that table.
District 2, the Sunset and Parkside, has the highest typical overbid in San Francisco. The median home there closed 32.7% above asking this year. It contributed 11 of the 160.
District 7, Pacific Heights, the Marina, Cow Hollow and Presidio Heights, is near the bottom of the city on that same measure. The median home there closed 6.7% above asking. It contributed 26.
Same city, same year, same dataset, same method. One district is where competition is broadest. The other is where competing at all produces the largest dollar figures, because the houses cost more. District 10 makes the point without argument: zero sales cleared a million over asking there, and its typical home still ran a higher overbid than District 7's did. A million-dollar gap is simply not arithmetically available at District 10 price points. That is a statement about price levels, not about demand.
One more caution before you lean on that table: a district median blends property types, and in two districts the blend is the whole story. District 9 reads exactly asking because 368 corridor condo closings from South Beach to Yerba Buena sit at or under list while the house neighborhoods behind them run hot: Bernal Heights houses closed a median 30.7% over asking this year, Potrero Hill houses 25.7% while Potrero condos ran 3.3%, Inner Mission houses 24.3% against 2.3% for its condos. District 8 is the same picture with Nob Hill and Russian Hill condo volume. Both maps below are drawn at neighborhood grain for exactly this reason.
District 2, the Sunset and Parkside
+32.7%
the highest typical overbid in San Francisco
and 11 of the 160 seven-figure gaps; the competition here is broad and the dollars are in the $400,000 to $500,000 range
District 7, Pacific Heights and the Marina
+6.7%
near the bottom of the city on the same measure
and 26 of the 160; the typical home here sells within a few percent of asking, and a few percent of $8M is a headline
Two different sales wearing the same headline
Sort the 160 by what the home was originally listed at, and the group splits cleanly in two.
| Listed at | Sales $1M+ over | Median % over asking | All 2026 closings in the band | Share that sold over asking |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1M to $2M | 38 | +67.0% | 1,411 | 77.2% |
| $2M to $3M | 47 | +50.3% | 356 | 76.1% |
| $3M to $5M | 47 | +31.6% | 223 | 66.8% |
| $5M and up | 28 | +25.3% | 115 | 47.0% |
At the low end, a million-dollar gap can only happen if the list price sat far below where the house was going to land. At the high end, a 25% move on a $6M listing clears a million without anything unusual happening at all.
The right column is the part most headlines get backwards. Homes listed between $1M and $2M sold above asking 77.2% of the time this year. Homes listed above $5M did so 47.0% of the time, and the median result in that band was exactly the asking price. Half of the most expensive listings in San Francisco sold at or below what they asked. The luxury tier is not uniformly competitive. A handful of sharply priced listings inside it produce very large headlines.
The largest gap of the year is the clearest case. A Cow Hollow house listed at $7,950,000 closed at $15,000,000, 88.7% over asking, in ten days. The sale is real and arms length. But the close works out to roughly $2,620 per square foot, which that block supports, while the list worked out to roughly half of that. Nobody bid a house up by 88%. Somebody listed a house at about half of what it was worth. Those are different events and only one of them is about the market.
Where it happens, and where it happens to you
By raw count the leaders are predictable: Noe Valley 22, Pacific Heights 13, Eureka Valley and Dolores Heights 11, Inner Mission 8, Inner Richmond and Bernal Heights 7 each.
By rate, meaning the share of a neighborhood's own closings that cleared a million over, the list rearranges. This is the version that matters if you own a house in one of them.
| Neighborhood | Sales $1M+ over | Share of its 2026 closings |
|---|---|---|
| Lake | 6 | 26.1% |
| Forest Hill | 3 | 25.0% |
| Inner Richmond | 7 | 20.0% |
| Buena Vista / Ashbury Heights | 4 | 16.7% |
| Cole Valley / Parnassus Heights | 4 | 16.0% |
| Noe Valley | 22 | 15.8% |
| Inner Sunset | 6 | 15.8% |
And then there is a third group, the one I find most instructive. Places where a million-dollar gap happened once, and was clearly a decision rather than a pattern. A West Portal house listed just under a million closed at $2,000,000. A Glen Park house listed at $1,149,000 closed at $2,500,000. An Outer Parkside house listed at $1,495,000 closed at $3,500,000. None of those are neighborhoods that routinely produce seven-figure overbids. Each is a single listing priced well under where the house was always going to land.
The whole list, if you want it
Here are all 160, sorted by the size of the gap. Closed prices are a matter of public record and I would rather you check my work than take the summary on faith. Every address links through to its listing, so you can see the photos and the detail behind each number.
Show all 160 sales, one by one
| Address | Neighborhood | District | Listed | Closed | Over asking | % | Days | Close date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2512 Union St | Cow Hollow | D7 | $7,950,000 | $15,000,000 | $7,050,000 | 88.7% | 10 | 2026-05-08 |
| 3140 Pacific Ave | Pacific Heights | D7 | $7,495,000 | $12,000,000 | $4,505,000 | 60.1% | 11 | 2026-07-22 |
| 212 Spruce St | Presidio Heights | D7 | $4,395,000 | $8,200,000 | $3,805,000 | 86.6% | 12 | 2026-04-30 |
| 225 Marina Blvd | Marina | D7 | $6,950,000 | $10,550,000 | $3,600,000 | 51.8% | 11 | 2026-06-24 |
| 2468 Broadway St | Pacific Heights | D7 | $3,995,000 | $7,000,000 | $3,005,000 | 75.2% | 5 | 2026-05-20 |
| 2830 Buchanan St | Pacific Heights | D7 | $6,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $3,000,000 | 50.0% | 11 | 2026-05-27 |
| 381 Liberty St | Eureka Valley / Dolores Heights | D5 | $5,995,000 | $8,750,000 | $2,755,000 | 46.0% | 2 | 2026-06-04 |
| 2685 Pacific Ave | Pacific Heights | D7 | $6,500,000 | $9,200,000 | $2,700,000 | 41.5% | 9 | 2026-05-06 |
| 58 Woodland Ave | Cole Valley / Parnassus Heights | D5 | $2,895,000 | $5,500,000 | $2,605,000 | 90.0% | 9 | 2026-06-24 |
| 251 28th Ave | Sea Cliff | D1 | $3,900,000 | $6,500,000 | $2,600,000 | 66.7% | 10 | 2026-04-02 |
| 2653 Union St | Cow Hollow | D7 | $5,500,000 | $8,000,000 | $2,500,000 | 45.5% | 9 | 2026-06-16 |
| 241 Frederick St | Haight Ashbury | D5 | $5,950,000 | $8,300,000 | $2,350,000 | 39.5% | 8 | 2026-03-30 |
| 2206 Lake St | Lake | D1 | $8,700,000 | $11,000,000 | $2,300,000 | 26.4% | 9 | 2026-05-11 |
| 29 West Clay St | Lake | D1 | $4,950,000 | $7,200,000 | $2,250,000 | 45.5% | 8 | 2026-04-02 |
| 349 Marina Blvd | Marina | D7 | $3,495,000 | $5,700,000 | $2,205,000 | 63.1% | 16 | 2026-03-30 |
| 1170 Chestnut St | Russian Hill | D8 | $4,500,000 | $6,600,000 | $2,100,000 | 46.7% | 6 | 2026-04-08 |
| 3616 21st St | Eureka Valley / Dolores Heights | D5 | $2,188,000 | $4,225,888 | $2,037,888 | 93.1% | 11 | 2026-01-30 |
| 1956 Great Hwy | Outer Parkside | D2 | $1,495,000 | $3,500,000 | $2,005,000 | 134.1% | 13 | 2026-05-11 |
| 211 Upper Ter | Buena Vista / Ashbury Heights | D5 | $4,995,000 | $7,000,000 | $2,005,000 | 40.1% | 3 | 2026-04-16 |
| 2101 Divisadero St | Pacific Heights | D7 | $5,995,000 | $8,000,000 | $2,005,000 | 33.4% | 12 | 2026-02-09 |
| 3853 22nd St | Noe Valley | D5 | $2,598,000 | $4,575,000 | $1,977,000 | 76.1% | 11 | 2026-03-10 |
| 659 12th Ave | Inner Richmond | D1 | $2,995,000 | $4,950,000 | $1,955,000 | 65.3% | 7 | 2026-03-16 |
| 4139 24th St | Noe Valley | D5 | $2,695,000 | $4,575,000 | $1,880,000 | 69.8% | 4 | 2026-03-23 |
| 931 Kirkham St | Inner Sunset | D2 | $2,395,000 | $4,239,310 | $1,844,310 | 77.0% | 8 | 2026-04-06 |
| 1426 8th Ave | Inner Sunset | D2 | $2,295,000 | $4,100,000 | $1,805,000 | 78.7% | 11 | 2026-03-11 |
| 219 4th Ave | Inner Richmond | D1 | $3,625,000 | $5,400,000 | $1,775,000 | 49.0% | 7 | 2026-06-01 |
| 264 Liberty St | Eureka Valley / Dolores Heights | D5 | $1,995,000 | $3,750,000 | $1,755,000 | 88.0% | 11 | 2026-05-11 |
| 2684 Green St | Cow Hollow | D7 | $8,000,000 | $9,750,000 | $1,750,000 | 21.9% | 20 | 2026-04-20 |
| 70 San Pablo Ave | St. Francis Wood | D4 | $2,995,000 | $4,705,000 | $1,710,000 | 57.1% | 8 | 2026-07-15 |
| 356 Valley St | Noe Valley | D5 | $2,895,000 | $4,575,000 | $1,680,000 | 58.0% | 13 | 2026-04-29 |
| 4256 23rd St | Noe Valley | D5 | $2,150,000 | $3,815,805 | $1,665,805 | 77.5% | 5 | 2026-07-02 |
| 73 Almaden Ct | Lone Mountain | D1 | $2,495,000 | $4,150,000 | $1,655,000 | 66.3% | 9 | 2026-06-15 |
| 135 26th Ave | Lake | D1 | $5,895,000 | $7,550,000 | $1,655,000 | 28.1% | 6 | 2026-06-10 |
| 39 Christopher Dr | Forest Knolls | D4 | $1,998,000 | $3,650,000 | $1,652,000 | 82.7% | 7 | 2026-04-24 |
| 139 Cherry St | Presidio Heights | D7 | $5,250,000 | $6,880,000 | $1,630,000 | 31.1% | 7 | 2026-04-01 |
| 2614 Sacramento St | Pacific Heights | D7 | $6,000,000 | $7,600,000 | $1,600,000 | 26.7% | 12 | 2026-06-12 |
| 4963 17th St | Cole Valley / Parnassus Heights | D5 | $6,500,000 | $8,100,000 | $1,600,000 | 24.6% | 11 | 2026-05-15 |
| 4048 23rd St | Noe Valley | D5 | $3,195,000 | $4,789,423 | $1,594,423 | 49.9% | 8 | 2026-05-15 |
| 1640 9th Ave | Inner Sunset | D2 | $2,495,000 | $4,050,000 | $1,555,000 | 62.3% | 3 | 2026-01-29 |
| 850 Wisconsin St | Potrero Hill | D9 | $2,998,000 | $4,540,000 | $1,542,000 | 51.4% | 9 | 2026-06-29 |
| 3107 Franklin St | Marina | D7 | $3,395,000 | $4,915,000 | $1,520,000 | 44.8% | 10 | 2026-04-23 |
| 50 Carmelita St | Hayes Valley | D6 | $5,795,000 | $7,300,000 | $1,505,000 | 26.0% | 7 | 2026-06-30 |
| 1759 8th Ave | Inner Sunset | D2 | $2,495,000 | $4,000,000 | $1,505,000 | 60.3% | 8 | 2026-05-04 |
| 550 4th Ave | Inner Richmond | D1 | $2,995,000 | $4,500,000 | $1,505,000 | 50.3% | 6 | 2026-07-16 |
| 3846 Cesar Chavez St | Noe Valley | D5 | $1,995,000 | $3,500,000 | $1,505,000 | 75.4% | 13 | 2026-05-04 |
| 323 Eureka St | Eureka Valley / Dolores Heights | D5 | $3,495,000 | $4,999,999 | $1,504,999 | 43.1% | 7 | 2026-03-12 |
| 2606 Jackson St | Pacific Heights | D7 | $22,500,000 | $24,000,000 | $1,500,000 | 6.7% | 9 | 2026-05-08 |
| 10 5th Ave | Lake | D1 | $12,000,000 | $13,500,000 | $1,500,000 | 12.5% | 6 | 2026-04-02 |
| 2880 Vallejo St | Pacific Heights | D7 | $25,000,000 | $26,500,000 | $1,500,000 | 6.0% | 22 | 2026-06-18 |
| 10 Deming St | Corona Heights | D5 | $4,450,000 | $5,900,000 | $1,450,000 | 32.6% | 14 | 2026-07-28 |
| 66 Cook St | Jordan Park / Laurel Heights | D1 | $1,998,000 | $3,420,000 | $1,422,000 | 71.2% | 8 | 2026-04-27 |
| 4118 20th St | Eureka Valley / Dolores Heights | D5 | $2,995,000 | $4,400,000 | $1,405,000 | 46.9% | 5 | 2026-04-29 |
| 408 Roosevelt Way | Corona Heights | D5 | $2,098,000 | $3,475,000 | $1,377,000 | 65.6% | 14 | 2026-06-10 |
| 1840 Castro St | Noe Valley | D5 | $2,495,000 | $3,850,000 | $1,355,000 | 54.3% | 10 | 2026-06-18 |
| 655 Duncan St | Noe Valley | D5 | $1,995,000 | $3,350,000 | $1,355,000 | 67.9% | 14 | 2026-06-08 |
| 818 Douglass St | Noe Valley | D5 | $5,898,000 | $7,250,000 | $1,352,000 | 22.9% | 0 | 2026-02-18 |
| 287 Chenery St | Glen Park | D5 | $1,149,000 | $2,500,000 | $1,351,000 | 117.6% | 15 | 2026-05-15 |
| 2218 Clay St | Pacific Heights | D7 | $7,600,000 | $8,950,000 | $1,350,000 | 17.8% | 12 | 2026-05-18 |
| 210 Lansdale Ave | Sherwood Forest | D4 | $3,295,000 | $4,625,000 | $1,330,000 | 40.4% | 8 | 2026-07-09 |
| 1375 Sanchez St | Noe Valley | D5 | $2,695,000 | $4,025,000 | $1,330,000 | 49.4% | 7 | 2026-04-03 |
| 4 Lexington St | Inner Mission | D9 | $1,485,000 | $2,800,000 | $1,315,000 | 88.6% | 10 | 2026-06-22 |
| 3622 21st St | Eureka Valley / Dolores Heights | D5 | $1,988,000 | $3,300,000 | $1,312,000 | 66.0% | 11 | 2026-02-17 |
| 42 Ord St | Corona Heights | D5 | $2,795,000 | $4,100,000 | $1,305,000 | 46.7% | 7 | 2026-04-17 |
| 214 Santa Clara Ave | St. Francis Wood | D4 | $3,995,000 | $5,300,000 | $1,305,000 | 32.7% | 12 | 2026-03-20 |
| 1027 Duncan St | Diamond Heights | D4 | $2,495,000 | $3,800,000 | $1,305,000 | 52.3% | 13 | 2026-03-16 |
| 264 Precita Ave | Bernal Heights | D9 | $2,495,000 | $3,800,000 | $1,305,000 | 52.3% | 8 | 2026-07-02 |
| 3036 Pierce St | Cow Hollow | D7 | $2,399,000 | $3,700,000 | $1,301,000 | 54.2% | 14 | 2026-04-17 |
| 778 10th Ave | Inner Richmond | D1 | $2,999,000 | $4,300,000 | $1,301,000 | 43.4% | 5 | 2026-05-07 |
| 4356 25th St | Noe Valley | D5 | $3,500,000 | $4,800,000 | $1,300,000 | 37.1% | 12 | 2026-06-03 |
| 4075 20th St | Eureka Valley / Dolores Heights | D5 | $4,295,000 | $5,580,000 | $1,285,000 | 29.9% | 11 | 2026-06-26 |
| 50 Cascade Walk | Golden Gate Heights | D2 | $3,885,000 | $5,167,500 | $1,282,500 | 33.0% | 14 | 2026-06-22 |
| 3222 Harrison St | Bernal Heights | D9 | $1,498,000 | $2,755,000 | $1,257,000 | 83.9% | 14 | 2026-07-31 |
| 65 Carmelita St | Hayes Valley | D6 | $4,398,000 | $5,650,000 | $1,252,000 | 28.5% | 5 | 2026-01-02 |
| 1332 Greenwich St | Russian Hill | D8 | $5,250,000 | $6,500,000 | $1,250,000 | 23.8% | 20 | 2026-07-01 |
| 922 Carolina St | Potrero Hill | D9 | $1,988,000 | $3,200,000 | $1,212,000 | 61.0% | 14 | 2026-07-28 |
| 889 Elizabeth St | Noe Valley | D5 | $5,695,000 | $6,900,000 | $1,205,000 | 21.2% | 2 | 2026-03-20 |
| 2609 Pine St | Lower Pacific Heights | D6 | $2,695,000 | $3,900,000 | $1,205,000 | 44.7% | 19 | 2026-05-15 |
| 1577 Shrader St | Cole Valley / Parnassus Heights | D5 | $2,295,000 | $3,500,000 | $1,205,000 | 52.5% | 13 | 2026-04-22 |
| 439 Connecticut St | Potrero Hill | D9 | $2,795,000 | $4,000,000 | $1,205,000 | 43.1% | 11 | 2026-05-26 |
| 33 Grenard Ter | Russian Hill | D8 | $2,395,000 | $3,600,000 | $1,205,000 | 50.3% | 9 | 2026-04-07 |
| 1601 15th Ave | Golden Gate Heights | D2 | $2,995,000 | $4,200,000 | $1,205,000 | 40.2% | 1 | 2026-03-09 |
| 826 40th Ave | Outer Richmond | D1 | $2,095,000 | $3,300,000 | $1,205,000 | 57.5% | 4 | 2026-06-18 |
| 3906 23rd St | Noe Valley | D5 | $1,295,000 | $2,500,000 | $1,205,000 | 93.1% | 6 | 2026-05-11 |
| 449 Alvarado St | Noe Valley | D5 | $3,750,000 | $4,950,000 | $1,200,000 | 32.0% | 13 | 2026-06-04 |
| 1338 Masonic Ave | Haight Ashbury | D5 | $4,290,000 | $5,450,000 | $1,160,000 | 27.0% | 10 | 2026-05-28 |
| 40 Sea View Ter | Unknown | D1 | $8,790,000 | $9,950,000 | $1,160,000 | 13.2% | 7 | 2026-04-23 |
| 143 Collingwood St | Eureka Valley / Dolores Heights | D5 | $3,695,000 | $4,850,000 | $1,155,000 | 31.3% | 5 | 2026-06-08 |
| 826 Diamond St | Noe Valley | D5 | $3,495,000 | $4,650,000 | $1,155,000 | 33.1% | 7 | 2026-02-24 |
| 487 Belvedere St | Cole Valley / Parnassus Heights | D5 | $2,195,000 | $3,350,000 | $1,155,000 | 52.6% | 7 | 2026-06-11 |
| 1465 23rd Ave | Central Sunset | D2 | $2,296,000 | $3,450,000 | $1,154,000 | 50.3% | 13 | 2026-06-29 |
| 1497 Shotwell St | Bernal Heights | D9 | $3,499,000 | $4,650,000 | $1,151,000 | 32.9% | 13 | 2026-05-29 |
| 558 22nd Ave | Central Richmond | D1 | $2,950,000 | $4,100,000 | $1,150,000 | 39.0% | 10 | 2026-06-02 |
| 101 Moffitt St | Glen Park | D5 | $1,749,000 | $2,880,000 | $1,131,000 | 64.7% | 8 | 2026-07-13 |
| 1985 8th Ave | Forest Hill | D4 | $1,495,000 | $2,625,000 | $1,130,000 | 75.6% | 7 | 2026-07-30 |
| 3193 Pacific Ave | Pacific Heights | D7 | $3,750,000 | $4,875,000 | $1,125,000 | 30.0% | 4 | 2026-07-02 |
| 1350 Plymouth Ave | Westwood Park | D4 | $1,980,000 | $3,100,000 | $1,120,000 | 56.6% | 4 | 2026-06-29 |
| 1071 Alabama St | Inner Mission | D9 | $2,395,000 | $3,515,000 | $1,120,000 | 46.8% | 10 | 2026-07-16 |
| 836 Alabama St | Inner Mission | D9 | $1,595,000 | $2,710,000 | $1,115,000 | 69.9% | 12 | 2026-06-22 |
| 1278 11th Ave | Inner Sunset | D2 | $2,195,000 | $3,310,000 | $1,115,000 | 50.8% | 11 | 2026-06-03 |
| 203 Hoffman Ave | Noe Valley | D5 | $1,499,000 | $2,610,000 | $1,111,000 | 74.1% | 13 | 2026-06-23 |
| 1738 Great Hwy | Outer Sunset | D2 | $1,495,000 | $2,600,000 | $1,105,000 | 73.9% | 8 | 2026-03-25 |
| 982 Hayes St | Alamo Square | D6 | $2,795,000 | $3,900,000 | $1,105,000 | 39.5% | 13 | 2026-05-21 |
| 50 El Verano Way | Monterey Heights | D4 | $1,495,000 | $2,600,000 | $1,105,000 | 73.9% | 10 | 2026-07-10 |
| 2 Rosewood Dr | Monterey Heights | D4 | $3,495,000 | $4,600,000 | $1,105,000 | 31.6% | 8 | 2026-07-23 |
| 1442 Sanchez St | Noe Valley | D5 | $3,495,000 | $4,600,000 | $1,105,000 | 31.6% | 5 | 2026-04-10 |
| 1321 South Van Ness Ave | Inner Mission | D9 | $1,995,000 | $3,100,000 | $1,105,000 | 55.4% | 14 | 2026-03-30 |
| 126 Mullen Ave | Bernal Heights | D9 | $2,195,000 | $3,300,000 | $1,105,000 | 50.3% | 5 | 2026-04-30 |
| 145 Grand View Ave | Eureka Valley / Dolores Heights | D5 | $1,995,000 | $3,100,000 | $1,105,000 | 55.4% | 9 | 2026-07-17 |
| 29 Mendosa Ave | Forest Hill | D4 | $2,395,000 | $3,500,000 | $1,105,000 | 46.1% | 6 | 2026-02-23 |
| 2736 Fulton St | Inner Richmond | D1 | $3,895,000 | $4,999,995 | $1,104,995 | 28.4% | 6 | 2026-06-12 |
| 930 Chestnut St | Russian Hill | D8 | $7,900,000 | $9,001,000 | $1,101,000 | 13.9% | 11 | 2026-05-29 |
| 1459 Oak St | Haight Ashbury | D5 | $1,999,000 | $3,100,000 | $1,101,000 | 55.1% | 8 | 2026-06-26 |
| 1819 8th Ave | Inner Sunset | D2 | $1,799,000 | $2,900,000 | $1,101,000 | 61.2% | 12 | 2026-04-22 |
| 844 Clayton St | Buena Vista / Ashbury Heights | D5 | $4,500,000 | $5,600,000 | $1,100,000 | 24.4% | 12 | 2026-03-20 |
| 178 States St | Corona Heights | D5 | $3,200,000 | $4,300,000 | $1,100,000 | 34.4% | 0 | 2026-02-19 |
| 1990 8th Ave | Forest Hill | D4 | $3,195,000 | $4,280,000 | $1,085,000 | 34.0% | 7 | 2026-06-26 |
| 279 Diamond St | Eureka Valley / Dolores Heights | D5 | $3,495,000 | $4,580,000 | $1,085,000 | 31.0% | 13 | 2026-01-28 |
| 163 Day St | Noe Valley | D5 | $1,395,000 | $2,470,000 | $1,075,000 | 77.1% | 6 | 2026-06-18 |
| 301 Santa Ana Ave | Balboa Terrace | D4 | $1,295,000 | $2,360,000 | $1,065,000 | 82.2% | 7 | 2026-04-15 |
| 726 Lake St | Lake | D1 | $3,695,000 | $4,750,000 | $1,055,000 | 28.6% | 11 | 2026-02-27 |
| 133 Vicksburg St | Noe Valley | D5 | $2,695,000 | $3,750,000 | $1,055,000 | 39.2% | 11 | 2026-02-13 |
| 3219 Harrison St | Bernal Heights | D9 | $1,795,000 | $2,850,000 | $1,055,000 | 58.8% | 7 | 2026-07-29 |
| 196 25th Ave | Lake | D1 | $4,295,000 | $5,350,000 | $1,055,000 | 24.6% | 12 | 2026-05-14 |
| 54 Rossi Ave | Lone Mountain | D1 | $2,395,000 | $3,450,000 | $1,055,000 | 44.1% | 10 | 2026-06-01 |
| 771 Elizabeth St | Noe Valley | D5 | $4,795,000 | $5,850,000 | $1,055,000 | 22.0% | 9 | 2026-07-24 |
| 215 3rd Ave | Inner Richmond | D1 | $4,795,000 | $5,850,000 | $1,055,000 | 22.0% | 15 | 2026-06-01 |
| 665 27th St | Noe Valley | D5 | $1,388,000 | $2,441,067 | $1,053,067 | 75.9% | 13 | 2026-04-02 |
| 22 25th Ave | Sea Cliff | D1 | $5,948,000 | $7,000,000 | $1,052,000 | 17.7% | 8 | 2026-06-01 |
| 2160 Hayes St #2 | North Panhandle | D6 | $2,349,000 | $3,400,000 | $1,051,000 | 44.7% | 11 | 2026-04-27 |
| 626-628 Shotwell St | Inner Mission | D9 | $3,800,000 | $4,850,000 | $1,050,000 | 27.6% | 13 | 2026-04-24 |
| 1913 Sacramento St | Pacific Heights | D7 | $4,500,000 | $5,550,000 | $1,050,000 | 23.3% | 7 | 2026-03-26 |
| 3043 Clay St #1 | Pacific Heights | D7 | $3,595,000 | $4,628,000 | $1,033,000 | 28.7% | 3 | 2026-03-23 |
| 3881 20th St #3 | Eureka Valley / Dolores Heights | D5 | $1,795,000 | $2,825,000 | $1,030,000 | 57.4% | 10 | 2026-05-18 |
| 1448 Union St | Russian Hill | D8 | $1,995,000 | $3,025,000 | $1,030,000 | 51.6% | 11 | 2026-05-06 |
| 333 14th Ave | Central Richmond | D1 | $1,995,000 | $3,025,000 | $1,030,000 | 51.6% | 12 | 2026-04-22 |
| 345 Hazelwood Ave | Westwood Highlands | D4 | $1,895,000 | $2,920,000 | $1,025,000 | 54.1% | 13 | 2026-03-25 |
| 3338 23rd St | Inner Mission | D9 | $1,785,000 | $2,805,000 | $1,020,000 | 57.1% | 7 | 2026-06-24 |
| 333 San Benito Way | Balboa Terrace | D4 | $1,998,000 | $3,015,000 | $1,017,000 | 50.9% | 7 | 2026-04-16 |
| 2370 North Point St | Marina | D7 | $3,098,000 | $4,110,000 | $1,012,000 | 32.7% | 14 | 2026-05-27 |
| 2885 Union St | Cow Hollow | D7 | $4,800,000 | $5,810,000 | $1,010,000 | 21.0% | 13 | 2026-06-04 |
| 71 Blake St | Jordan Park / Laurel Heights | D1 | $1,998,888 | $3,008,888 | $1,010,000 | 50.5% | 7 | 2026-06-05 |
| 1440 Jackson St | Nob Hill | D8 | $3,495,000 | $4,505,000 | $1,010,000 | 28.9% | 11 | 2026-05-07 |
| 3280 22nd St #D | Inner Mission | D9 | $2,195,000 | $3,200,000 | $1,005,000 | 45.8% | 14 | 2026-06-11 |
| 295 Coso Ave | Bernal Heights | D9 | $4,995,000 | $6,000,000 | $1,005,000 | 20.1% | 11 | 2026-07-15 |
| 1550 Masonic Ave | Buena Vista / Ashbury Heights | D5 | $1,995,000 | $3,000,000 | $1,005,000 | 50.4% | 15 | 2026-06-12 |
| 56 Casa Way | Marina | D7 | $3,695,000 | $4,700,000 | $1,005,000 | 27.2% | 0 | 2026-03-23 |
| 46 Wilmot St | Lower Pacific Heights | D6 | $3,495,000 | $4,500,000 | $1,005,000 | 28.8% | 46 | 2026-05-04 |
| 21 Lagunitas Dr | Lakeside | D3 | $2,395,000 | $3,400,000 | $1,005,000 | 42.0% | 12 | 2026-04-16 |
| 522 9th Ave | Inner Richmond | D1 | $2,195,000 | $3,200,000 | $1,005,000 | 45.8% | 12 | 2026-05-21 |
| 863 26th Ave | Central Richmond | D1 | $2,995,000 | $4,000,000 | $1,005,000 | 33.6% | 12 | 2026-06-29 |
| 2459 Buchanan St | Pacific Heights | D7 | $2,395,000 | $3,400,000 | $1,005,000 | 42.0% | 7 | 2026-03-12 |
| 25 Elsie St | Bernal Heights | D9 | $2,995,000 | $4,000,000 | $1,005,000 | 33.6% | 4 | 2026-05-05 |
| 46-48 S Wilmot St | Lower Pacific Heights | D6 | $3,495,000 | $4,500,000 | $1,005,000 | 28.8% | 17 | 2026-05-04 |
| 485 Day St | Noe Valley | D5 | $5,695,000 | $6,700,000 | $1,005,000 | 17.7% | 9 | 2026-06-01 |
| 162 Noe St | Duboce Triangle | D5 | $1,995,000 | $3,000,000 | $1,005,000 | 50.4% | 11 | 2026-05-05 |
| 877 Treat Ave | Inner Mission | D9 | $3,995,000 | $4,999,000 | $1,004,000 | 25.1% | 6 | 2026-06-10 |
| 25 Claremont Blvd | West Portal | D4 | $998,000 | $2,000,000 | $1,002,000 | 100.4% | 12 | 2026-04-24 |
| 601 Corbett Ave | Twin Peaks | D5 | $1,998,000 | $3,000,000 | $1,002,000 | 50.2% | 14 | 2026-05-07 |
| 1854 Jefferson St | Marina | D7 | $3,995,000 | $4,995,000 | $1,000,000 | 25.0% | 7 | 2026-06-05 |
| 447 Buena Vista Ave | Buena Vista / Ashbury Heights | D5 | $5,500,000 | $6,500,000 | $1,000,000 | 18.2% | 23 | 2026-07-08 |
What to do with this
If you are pricing a home to sell, start by refusing to price off the roster. A comparable sale that closed far over asking tells you very little until you know what it was listed at and why. Ask that question every time, including when someone uses such a sale to tell you your own house is worth more than you thought.
Underpricing is a real strategy with real conditions attached. It works when a property draws a genuine crowd, in a segment where qualified buyers are actively competing, with enough scarcity that several of them show up in the same two weeks. Those conditions hold in more of this city than they did two years ago. They do not hold everywhere, and where they fail, the strategy fails expensively, because a low list price is a public anchor you cannot quietly walk back.
Notice also what did not separate these sales. The 160 went into contract in a median of ten days. Citywide the median was thirteen. Three days. Whatever is producing seven-figure gaps, it is not principally that these homes moved faster than everything else.
If you are writing an offer, the useful move is to stop reading the dollar figure and start reading the list price behind it. In District 7 a large gap usually means the listing was priced to start an auction. In the Sunset a large percentage usually means a lot of people want the same house. You bid differently into those two situations, and confusing them costs real money in both directions.
The short version, which is the whole issue in one line: ask what it was listed at. I keep the four-window read for every neighborhood current, and if you want to know what your own block actually supports before you set a number, that is a short conversation and I am glad to have it. More on this thread in the San Francisco overbidding topic.
AI Corridor Scoreboard
One reading per issue on the city's softest segment, the condos near the new AI offices, so you can watch the turn as it happens.
| Issue | Date | Reading | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| #17 (this issue) | Aug 9, 2026 | Zero, which is the cleanest reading this scoreboard has produced. Across 368 corridor condo closings so far in 2026, not one sold $1,000,000 over asking, and the typical one closed slightly under asking: South Beach 0.7% below on 183 sales, South of Market 1.0% below on 79, Yerba Buena 2.4% below on 53, Mission Bay exactly at asking on 53. In an issue about where the overbidding is, the corridor is where it is not. | Buyer opening holds, and this issue measures exactly how wide it is. |
| #16 | Aug 6, 2026 | Flat in every window, which this issue argues is the whole point. South Beach condos read 100.0% of asking at 30, 90 and 180 days and 99.0% over the trailing year. South of Market reads 99.4, 99.8, 99.6 and 99.0. Four windows, one answer. Every house lane in this issue moved when the window moved; the corridor did not, and a segment that reads the same no matter how you slice it is a segment that is not turning. | Buyer opening holds, and now it is measured four ways instead of one. |
Show the 14 earlier readings
| Issue | Date | Reading | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| #15 | Aug 2, 2026 | Unchanged at the bottom of the same ladder. This issue extended the over-asking gradient into small multifamily, and the corridor still anchors the low end: right at asking, while two-unit buildings cleared 11.7% over and houses 23.8%. The ordering is by how much a property lives like a house, and a corridor tower is the furthest thing from one. | Buyer opening holds, and this issue explains why it persists. |
| #14 | Jul 29, 2026 | Read on supply this time, not price. Citywide condo and townhome months of supply fell from 3.9 to 1.7 in a year and active listings from 772 to 480, so even the calmest lane in the city now offers less to choose from. This issue did not re-measure corridor pricing. | Buyer opening holds on price; the shelf behind it is thinner. |
| #13 | Jul 25, 2026 | Graduated to the essay. Back at asking for the first time since 2022, after three springs about 1% below it, and the clock changed: median market time fell from 38 days to 19 and the share selling over asking roughly doubled, from the low twenties to the mid forties. Price at par, speed doubled. | Negotiating room intact; the window now narrows in speed, not price. |
| #12 | Jul 21, 2026 | Still the calm corner, and it proves the point. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold right at list, about 100%, with only 31% over asking on 836 sales, while mid-priced houses cleared 123 to 127% of list. Condos rarely get listed low to start a war, so the overbid never appears. | Buyer leverage holds where the list-low tactic is not used. |
| #11 | Jul 17, 2026 | Unmoved by the house story. While overbidding ran one tier below the trophy core, the corridor and condo core cleared near asking, and the two flat lanes the field named as spillover candidates, Hayes Valley and Lower Pacific Heights, stayed calm in closed data. | Still the clearest buyer opening in the city. |
| #10 | Jul 14, 2026 | Still soft while the headline is elsewhere. June's million-over-asking story is a west-side and central house market, not the AI-corridor towers. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay and South Beach, ran about 10% below last year even as volume climbed. Activity returns to the corridor; pricing has not. | Still the clearest buyer opening in the city. |
| #09 | Jul 10, 2026 | Still the soft floor at the halfway mark. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold near 100% of list with only about 36% over asking on roughly 290 sales this year, while citywide houses ran near 121% of list. The widest lane in the city stays open. | Clearest buyer opportunity holds into the second half. |
| #08 | Jul 5, 2026 | Still the soft floor even as the top books records. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold near 100% of list with heavy cash and light competition, while $5M+ houses set a decade volume record at about 112% of list on roughly 64% cash. Cash without a crowd here. | Buyer opportunity intact where the crowds are not. |
| #06 | Jun 25, 2026 | Still the calm corner while the house middle runs hot. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold right at list, about 100%, with only 35% over asking on 300 sales, against the $1.5M to $3M house band at 122 to 125% of list. | Buyer opportunity holds where the bidding wars are not. |
| #05 | Jun 21, 2026 | Cash, not heat. Corridor condos carry heavier cash than the citywide condo average, about 42% versus 37%, yet still sell near 98.7% of list with only about 20% over asking versus 45% citywide. Cash concentrates here; competition does not. | Negotiating room for financed buyers. |
| #04 | Jun 17, 2026 | Still the soft floor while houses raced ahead. Corridor near 98 to 99% of list versus 103.8% citywide and about 123% for single-family in the last 30 days. | Buyer opportunity holds; the gap to houses only widened. |
| #03 | Jun 13, 2026 | Still the bottom of the overbid table. Corridor sale-to-list at about 98 to 99% versus 103.6% citywide, trailing year. | Opportunity intact for negotiators. |
| #02 | Jun 10, 2026 | Turning at the edges. Citywide condos hit 101.4% of list in May; inventory fell to 584 from 905. The corridor towers remain the soft end. | Window narrowing, not closed. |
| #01 | Jun 7, 2026 | Soft. Only 37 to 43% of SoMa, Mission Bay, and downtown condos sold over asking. | Clearest buyer opportunity in the city. |
- 160 San Francisco homes closed at least $1,000,000 above asking between January 1 and August 6, 2026, across 46 neighborhoods, for $231,423,987 above list in total. That is 5.3% of the 3,019 residential closings in the same window, in a market where 2,058 of them, 68.2%, sold above asking at all.
- The roster is a price map, not a heat map. District 7 produced 26 of the 160 while its typical home sold 6.7% over asking, near the bottom of the city. District 2 produced 11 while its typical home sold 32.7% over, the highest in the city. District 10 produced zero seven-figure gaps and still ran a higher typical overbid than District 7.
- Two different populations sit inside the same list. Among the 160, homes listed between $1M and $2M closed a median 67.0% over asking. Homes listed above $5M closed a median 25.3% over. At the low end a seven-figure gap requires an unusual list price. At the high end it does not require anything unusual at all.
- The luxury tier is not uniformly competitive, which is the part the headlines get backwards. Across all 2026 closings, homes listed $1M to $2M sold above asking 77.2% of the time. Homes listed above $5M did so 47.0% of the time, and the median result in that band was exactly the asking price, a dollar gap of zero.
- By count the leaders are Noe Valley with 22, Pacific Heights 13, Eureka Valley and Dolores Heights 11, Inner Mission 8, Inner Richmond and Bernal Heights 7 each. By share of a neighborhood's own closings the order rearranges: Lake at 26.1%, Forest Hill 25.0%, Inner Richmond 20.0%, Buena Vista and Ashbury Heights 16.7%.
- The largest single gap was 2512 Union St in Cow Hollow, listed at $7,950,000 and closed at $15,000,000, 88.7% over asking, in ten days. Read carefully that is a list price set at roughly half of what the block supports, not a market that bid a house up by 88%. The close works out to about $2,620 per square foot, which is defensible there. The list did not.
- Speed barely separates the two groups. The 160 went into contract in a median of 10 days against 13 citywide. Whatever produces a seven-figure gap, it is not principally that these homes moved faster than everything else.
- The practical rule for a seller: price from your own subdistrict's recent read, not from the roster. Underpricing works where a genuine crowd is already competing and fails expensively where it is not, because a low list price is a public anchor you cannot quietly walk back.
Every neighborhood in this issue is live, with its own sample size and reliability label, in the market explorer. Read your own subdistrict before you price or bid.
Sources and further reading
- S&P Case-Shiller home price index, San Francisco metro area (FRED)
- California Association of Realtors county sales activity, including San Francisco County
- Topic: San Francisco overbidding, the whole question in one place
- How I read the San Francisco market, the method behind these figures
- Issue #16: A Window Is a Memory, why the window you pick moves the answer
- Selling in San Francisco, starting with whether you should
- How I read the San Francisco market, the method behind these figures
Methodology and sources
Source: POTM Command, governed MLS analytics, as of August 6, 2026. The universe is San Francisco residential closed sales with close dates from January 1 through August 6, 2026: single-family homes, condominiums and townhomes, and tenancy-in-common units. That is 3,019 closings. Multi-unit residential income buildings are excluded throughout, as they are everywhere else on this site; including them would add 11 more sales over $1,000,000 above asking, for 171 across 47 neighborhoods, and would mix income property into a count about homes. Amount over asking is close price minus the original list price on the same listing record. A listing with no recorded list price yields no value and is never scored as a zero gap. All medians are exact percentiles across the sales in the group, not averages, and not medians of medians. Records are deduplicated to one closed event per listing, keeping the most recently ingested version. Sale-to-list values outside a 50 to 250 percent band are excluded as data-entry errors, as are quarantined records that have not passed review. Eighteen of the 160 carry an open data-quality review flag; they are included here for consistency with every other figure published from this dataset, and removing them changes no direction or ranking in this issue. Percentages in this issue are stated as percent above asking, so a home that closed at 146% of its list price is reported as 46% over. District figures are San Francisco MLS districts. Neighborhood figures are MLS subdistricts; one sale in the set carries no subdistrict and appears as Unknown. Windows and any use of the word year-to-date are anchored to the most recent data pull, August 6, 2026, not to the calendar date you are reading this. Both maps are drawn at MLS subdistrict grain. On the left map, each neighborhood is shaded by its count of $1M-plus over-asking sales, zero shading palest; one of the 160 carries no recorded subdistrict, so it is absent from the map while present in every figure. On the right map, each neighborhood's figure is the exact median across its own closings in the window, and neighborhoods with fewer than 12 closings are shown grey rather than colored, 12 being the published sample bar for a strong subdistrict read at the nearest published window. August is a partial month and is excluded from the monthly reading. The monthly share of closings clearing $1,000,000 over asking ran 2.1% in January, 2.4% in February, 4.2% in March, 6.2% in April, 6.5% in May, 7.6% in June and 4.7% in July; one year of a single measure is not a trend and should be read as seasonal until there is more of it. One structural limit worth stating plainly: this dataset has no concessions field, so a sale that closed high with credits back to the buyer is indistinguishable here from a clean one. Every address in the full table links to its listing page, and each link was matched on address and then confirmed against the close price in this table. One case is worth naming because it looks like an error and is not: 178 States St is a two-unit building, and a second unit there closed at $4,800,000 in May 2026. That is a different home and a different sale. The one counted here is the February 2026 close at $4,300,000, and it is the only one of the two that clears a million over asking. Data deemed reliable but not guaranteed, subject to change, correction, and revision. General information, not legal, tax, or financial advice, and not a forecast.
What does this Pulse mean for your block?
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