San Francisco Housing Market in Numbers, September 2026

September is the month the fall listings arrive, and the month the market is supposed to loosen a little while buyers compare them. Issue #24 laid out the pattern: houses for sale peak in September or October every year, a median 37% above August. That part happened on schedule. The loosening did not.

This is the second edition of In Numbers, the monthly record. One month per edition, published the first week of the following month, on the same governed MLS data as Paulo's Pulse. The numbered POTM Blog issues say what the numbers mean. This series is the numbers.

1. Houses: the biggest September overbid in ten years

Single-family houses closed at a median 128.8% of asking in September, on 190 sales. In the ten Septembers since 2016 the previous high was 116.8%, in 2017. No other September reached 117%. The other two bidding-war numbers say the same thing: 81.6% of houses cleared asking by 10% or more, and 4.2% sold under asking. Last September those were 52% and 16%.

Median price $2,050,000, median $1,184 per square foot, both up 17% on the year. The house that sold was about 6% larger than last September's (1,843 square feet against 1,739), so a small part of the median is size. The per-foot gain is not.

Houses: the biggest September overbid in ten years Median sale price of single-family houses as percentage points over the asking price, for every house that closed in September, 2016 to 2026. The prior peak, 2017, was 16.8 points on 194 sales; 2026 is 28.8 on 190. San Francisco MLS via POTM Command.

What did not change is the clock. Houses took a median 12 days to go into contract, exactly what they took in September 2025. The market did not get faster this month. It got more expensive at the same speed, which is what a shelf with a third of its homes missing does when the buyers are already standing in front of it. Issue #23 has the ten-year test behind that sentence.

2. Everything else was faster, and most of it was over asking

Across all 480 governed closings, the median home sold at 113.5% of asking in 12 days, against 100.9% and 16 days a year ago. 65% of sales were in contract within two weeks (48% last September); one in eight took more than 60 days (one in five). Median price $1,722,500 and $1,105 per square foot, the highest September readings of the decade, against $1,407,500 and $930 in 2025.

Condos and townhouses crossed the line they had sat on for three years: 105.3% of asking in 13 days on 207 sales, against exactly asking in 19 days last September. That is the first September over asking for condos since 2021. The share selling under asking fell from 43% to 18%. Median $1,325,000, $1,154 per square foot, up 19% and 15%.

The condo caveat from August still holds. July through September, South Beach (80 sales), South of Market and Yerba Buena all sold at exactly asking; Downtown sold just under it in 49 days. Noe Valley condos sold at 122% in 12 days. The neighborhood flat woke up. The tower is still waiting.

Two-to-four unit buildings: median $2,332,500 on 68 sales, up 19% on the year, 104% of asking in 13 days against asking in 34 days. The 15 TIC sales are too few to read.

3. Where asking price still means asking price

Price band	Sale-to-list, Sep 2026	Sep 2025	Sales	Cash share
Under $1M	100%, exactly at asking	100%	78	24%
$1M to $1.5M	110%	102%	101	22%
$1.5M to $2M	120%	106%	110	29%
$2M to $3M	127%	104%	99	40%
$3M to $5M	122%	108%	58	55%
$5M and up	114%	100%	34	81%

Under $1,000,000 is still the only band where the list price is the price, and it is shrinking: 78 sales, 16% of the month, against 124 and 26% a year ago. Sales under $1.5 million fell from 54% of September to 37%. Sales at $2 million and up rose from 27% to 40%, and the $5 million band nearly tripled, 34 sales against 12, eight in ten of them cash. The war is loudest between $1.5 million and $3 million, which is the band where most buyers are financing a jumbo loan. Issue #25 is about exactly that buyer.

4. The west side still writes the wildest numbers

July through September, Central Sunset sold at a median 145% of asking on 27 sales. Outer Parkside 136%. Glen Park 135%. Parkside 130%. Central Richmond and Bernal Heights 120%. In September alone the Central Richmond's 15 sales went at a median $2,000,000 and 129% of asking in 13 days. As Issue #17 argued, on the west side the list price is an opening bid; read the closed prices and set your ceiling from those.

Price per square foot against the same three months of 2025: District 7 (Pacific Heights, the Marina) +26% to $1,388; District 1, the Richmond, +25% to $1,095; Districts 4, 5, 6 and 9 all +20% to +21%; Districts 2, 3, 8 and 10 between +10% and +13%. Every district is a Strong read, 68 to 348 sales.

5. The fall listings arrived, a third short

At the end of September, SFAR counted 227 houses for sale, up from 152 at the end of August and 25% below last September's 302. 426 condos and townhouses, up from 340 and 35% below last year's 652. Together, 653 against 954. Months of supply: houses 1.2, condos 2.0, against 1.6 and 3.5 a year ago.

Demand did not surge to meet the new listings; it held. Contracts written in September were flat to down on the year (houses 213 against 241, condos 257 against 258, and InfoSparks restates its newest month, so read those as directional), and closed sales were flat at 383. Fewer deals than the new listings could have supported, at the highest prices of the decade. Cash paid for 35% of sales with reported financing, about the same as last September; houses 31%.

What September cannot tell you

The Fed raised rates on September 16. A home that goes into contract in 12 days closes about a month later, so nearly every closing in this record was agreed before the hike, most of them in August and the first days of September. Issue #25 walks through what happened the last time rates moved this hard, and who stopped bidding first. The first contracts written at the new rate show up in October closings. That is the next edition.

What it means for October

If you are selling a house: September's closed prices are the strongest comparables this market has produced, and they were set before the hike. Price to the neighborhood's closed numbers, list when the house is ready, and do not assume October's buyer pool is September's. Issue #24's clock still applies: a fall house that sits past three weeks sells at asking.

If you are buying: under $1 million the market still negotiates. Between $1.5 million and $3 million, plan for the band's real sale-to-list, not the list price, and get the jumbo rate locked before the open house, because that band is where the rate lands hardest. October adds choice; use it to compare, not to wait.

If you are deciding whether to sell at all: nothing here says you must. These numbers describe the market that just closed. They do not make the decision for you.

Three September sales worth knowing

3460 Clay Street, Presidio Heights. Listed at $11,000,000, closed at $14,700,000 in 15 days: $3.7 million over asking, the largest dollar overbid and the largest sale of the month.
259 17th Avenue, Central Richmond. Listed at $1,268,000, closed at $2,500,000, cash: 197% of asking, the largest percentage overbid of the month. Note the list price.
2946 Pierce Street, Cow Hollow. A condo listed at $3,995,000, closed at $6,700,000 in 11 days, cash: $2.7 million over asking, the largest condo overbid of the month.

By the numbers

Measure	September 2026	September 2025
Houses and condos for sale, end of month (SFAR)	653	954, down 31.6%
Months of supply, houses / condos (SFAR)	1.2 / 2.0	1.6 / 3.5
Pending sales, houses / condos (SFAR, directional)	213 / 257	241 / 258
Closed sales (SFAR)	383	400
Governed closes in the POTM set (through Oct 3)	480	476
Median price, all types	$1,722,500	$1,407,500
Median $/sf, all types	$1,105	$930
Median sale-to-list, all types	113.5%	100.9%
Median days on market	12	16
Sold within 14 days	65% of sales	48%
Sold over asking	76% of sales	54%
Sold 10%+ over asking	55% of sales	29%
Cash share (reported financing)	35%	36%
Houses: median / $/sf / sale-to-list	$2,050,000 / $1,184 / 128.8% (190)	$1,742,500 / $1,012 / 110.7% (180)
Houses: for sale / months supply / pending (SFAR)	227 / 1.2 / 213	302 / 1.6 / 241
Condos and TH: median / $/sf / sale-to-list / days on market	$1,325,000 / $1,154 / 105.3% / 13 (207)	$1,115,000 / $1,001 / 100.0% / 19 (218)
Condos: for sale / months supply / pending (SFAR)	426 / 2.0 / 257	652 / 3.5 / 258
TIC: median / sale-to-list / days on market (thin)	$1,600,000 / 108.5% / 27 (15)	$979,000 / 100.3% / 30 (18)
2 to 4 units: median / sale-to-list / days on market	$2,332,500 / 104.1% / 13 (68)	$1,962,500 / 100.0% / 34 (60)

Reliability: every citywide and type-level row is Strong (30 or more sales) except TICs, which are Anecdotal at 15 and 18 sales and are shown for the record only. District reads use July through September and are Strong in every district shown.

Frequently asked questions

How much over asking did San Francisco houses sell for in September 2026?

The median single-family house that closed in September 2026 sold at 128.8% of its asking price, on 190 sales. That is the highest September reading in the ten years since 2016; the prior peak was 116.8% in September 2017. 81.6% of houses cleared asking by 10% or more and 4.2% sold under asking. Across all property types the median was 113.5% of asking, against 100.9% in September 2025.

What was the median home price in San Francisco in September 2026?

$1,722,500 across all property types, at $1,105 per square foot, on 480 governed closed sales recorded through October 3, 2026, against $1,407,500 and $930 a year earlier. Single-family houses had a median of $2,050,000 ($1,184 per square foot, 190 sales); condos and townhouses $1,325,000 ($1,154 per square foot, 207 sales); two-to-four unit buildings $2,332,500 (68 sales). The 15 TIC sales are too few to read.

Are San Francisco condos selling over asking?

In September 2026 the median condo or townhouse sold at 105.3% of asking in 13 days, against exactly asking in 19 days in September 2025, the first September over asking since 2021. The share selling under asking fell from 43% to 18% of sales. The turn is in neighborhood buildings, not towers: South Beach, South of Market and Yerba Buena still sold at asking from July through September, Downtown just under, while Noe Valley condos sold at 122%.

How many homes are for sale in San Francisco?

653 houses and condos were for sale in San Francisco County at the end of September 2026 per SFAR InfoSparks: 227 houses (up from 152 in August, 25% below September 2025) and 426 condos and townhouses (up from 340, 35% below). Months of supply: houses 1.2, condos 2.0. Pending sales were flat to down on the year and closed sales flat at 383, so the fall listings arrived on schedule and sit about a third short of last year.

Did the September 2026 Fed rate hike affect San Francisco home prices?

Not in September's closings. A home that goes into contract in 12 days usually closes about a month later, so nearly every September 2026 closing was agreed before the September 16 hike. Issue #25 has the rate path: 6.95% on the weekly survey in late September and 7.58% on the daily index by September 28. The first contracts written at the new rate show up in October closings, which is the month to watch.

Takeaways

Houses set the ten-year September high on every bidding-war number: 128.8% of asking (116.8% at the 2017 peak), 81.6% of sales clearing asking by 10% or more, 4.2% of sales under asking. Median $2,050,000 and $1,184 per square foot on 190 sales, both up 17% on the year, on a house about 6% larger than last September's.
The clock did not change, the bids did. Houses took a median 12 days to go into contract, the same as September 2025. Across all property types the median was 12 days against 16, and 65% of sales were in contract within two weeks against 48%.
Condos crossed the line: 105.3% of asking in 13 days on 207 sales, against exactly asking in 19 days a year ago, the first September over asking since 2021. Median $1,325,000 and $1,154 per square foot, up 19% and 15%. The towers are still at asking: South Beach, SoMa and Yerba Buena all sold at 100% this quarter, Downtown just under.
By price band: under $1 million sold exactly at asking, as it did a year ago. $1M to $1.5M ran 110%, $1.5M to $2M 120%, $2M to $3M 127%, $3M to $5M 122% with 55% of buyers paying cash, $5M and up 114% on 34 sales against 12 last September. Sales under $1.5 million fell from 54% of the month to 37%.
The fall listings arrived on schedule and a third short. 227 houses for sale at month end, up from 152 in August and 25% below last September; 426 condos, up from 340 and 35% below. Months of supply: houses 1.2, condos 2.0. Contracts written ran flat to down on the year (houses 213 against 241, condos 257 against 258) while closed sales were flat at 383.
What September cannot tell you: the Fed raised rates on September 16 and a 12-day market closes about a month after it goes into contract, so nearly everything in this record was agreed before the hike. The first contracts written at the new rate show up in October closings.

The same cut for every San Francisco neighborhood, refreshed weekly: Paulo’s Pulse, the research lab.

‹ August 2026

Sources and further reading

Methodology and sources

Source: POTM Command, governed MLS analytics, 63,226 governed closed sales as of October 3, 2026. Closed sales dated in the named month, parcel-deduplicated, sale-to-list plausibility band applied. Medians throughout; no averages. Cash share counts only sales that reported financing. Inventory, months of supply, pending and closed-sale counts are SFAR InfoSparks, San Francisco County, September 2026, houses and condos/townhouses, read October 2; InfoSparks restates the newest month, so treat the pending counts as directional. The POTM set is larger because it includes TICs, two-to-four unit buildings and every source MLS. Year-ago comparisons are September 2025 on the same rule. District and neighborhood reads use July through September so no district sits on a thin month. Data deemed reliable but not guaranteed, subject to change, correction and revision; no claim of 100% accuracy. Paulo does not give legal, tax or financial advice.

September 2026 in numbers: the biggest overbid in ten Septembers