August 2026 in numbers: the fastest August in ten years

Every August I get the same question, phrased two ways. Buyers ask whether the summer lull is real. Sellers ask whether they missed the window. This year the closed sales answer both, and the answer is the same: there was no lull.

This is the first edition of In Numbers, the monthly record. One month per edition, published the first week of the following month, on the same governed MLS data as Paulo's Pulse. The numbered POTM Blog issues say what the numbers mean. This series is the numbers.

1. The fastest August in ten years

By the SFAR count, 374 homes closed in August, 3% more than a year ago. Across the 429 closes in POTM Command's governed set, which adds two-to-four unit buildings and every source MLS, the median sale was $1,557,000 and $1,038 per square foot. The median home went into contract in 14 days. A year ago it was 29. Two years ago, 27.

The speed is the headline, not the price. In August 2025, one sale in three was in contract within two weeks and nearly one in three took more than 60 days. This August, more than half closed inside two weeks and one in six took more than 60 days. Across the ten Augusts since 2016, no month came close: 2017 and 2021, the two prior peaks, ran 16 days.

The median price, for the record, is $7,000 above August 2021. Call it a tie with the old high, not a record. The competition numbers are not a tie.

2. Houses: the most competitive August on record, on every measure

Single-family houses set ten-year August highs on the three numbers that describe a bidding war. Median sale-to-list: 119.3% of asking, against 115.2% at the 2021 peak. Share of houses clearing asking by 10% or more: 68.2%, against 61.6% in 2021. Share selling under asking: 8.6%, the lowest of the decade. Price per square foot: $1,088, a decade high, on 151 sales.

Two things keep this from being a size-mix story. The median house that sold in August was 1,704 square feet, essentially the same as last August's 1,660. And the year-over-year gains in price per square foot are as large as the gains in the median: +17% on $/sf, +24% on the median. This is the same house costing more, not a different house.

3. The condo turn

Condos and townhouses were the slow lane for three years. In August 2025 the median condo took 48 days to sell, 58% closed under asking, and only 8% cleared asking by double digits.

August 2026: 14 days, 26% of sales under asking, 26% clearing by 10% or more. Median $1,260,000 and $1,107 per square foot, both up 22% on the year, on 185 sales.

The demand side says the same thing: condo pendings in August were up 25% on the year while active condo listings were down 38%.

One caution before anyone rewrites the condo story entirely. The heat is in the neighborhood flat, not the tower. Downtown, Yerba Buena and South of Market still ran at or under asking this summer with 48 to 55 median days on market. Nob Hill sat exactly at asking. The condo market is two markets, and the June-through-August numbers say which one woke up.

4. Where asking price still means asking price

Sort August by price band and a ladder appears.

Under $1,000,000 is the only band where the list price is still the price. The bands also moved. A year ago, 61% of August sales closed under $1.5 million. This August, 45% did. Sales between $2 million and $5 million went from 19% of the month to 30%. Read both ways at once: prices rose, and more expensive homes traded.

5. The west side wrote the wildest numbers. The Richmond posted the real appreciation.

June through August, Central Sunset sold at a median 148% of asking on 32 sales, with 97% of sales over asking. Outer Parkside 137%. Parkside 133%. Sunnyside 131%. Those are pricing strategy as much as demand: on the west side, the list price has become an opening bid, a point made in Issue #17. If you are shopping there, read the neighborhood's closed prices, not its list prices, and set your ceiling from those.

The appreciation story is quieter and one district north. District 1, the Richmond, sold at $1,127 per square foot this summer against $851 a year ago, +32%, on 132 sales, and the median home that sold was the same size both years, about 2,270 square feet. District 4 (West Portal, Forest Hill, St. Francis Wood) ran +21% on $/sf, District 7 (Pacific Heights, the Marina) +26%, District 6 +24%. District 10, Bayview and the Excelsior, +10%. District 3, the Ingleside side, +3%, the softest reading in the city.

6. Cash: the highest August share in a decade, and still not the west-side story

35.7% of August sales with reported financing closed with cash. That is the highest August share in the ten years we track; it was 18.5% in 2017 and under 25% every August through 2023. Cash was 60% of the $3M to $5M band.

But houses closed with cash only 29.7% of the time, and the west-side bidding wars above were overwhelmingly financed. Issue #18 found the same thing citywide, and a title company's numbers presented at our Compass citywide meeting on September 2 landed in the same place. Three sources, one reading: cash decides at the top; below $3 million the war is won with borrowed money and clean terms.

7. The number behind all of the above

Supply. At the end of August there were 548 homes for sale in San Francisco, 39% fewer than a year earlier. Houses: 151 on the market, down 37%, and 0.8 months of supply. Condos: 338, down 38%, 1.6 months of supply. New listings were actually up 9% on the year; they simply did not last. Pending sales rose 15% citywide and 25% for condos while closed sales rose 3%.

What it means for September

If you are selling a house: the fall listing wave is arriving into the thinnest supply in a decade, and August's closed prices are your comparables now, not spring's. Price to the neighborhood's closed numbers, not to what you hope a bidding war produces; the war shows up on its own.

If you are buying: under $1 million, the market is behaving normally and you can negotiate. Above it, plan for the band's real sale-to-list, not the list price, and have your financing and terms ready before the open house. The homes that closed in 14 days did not wait for anyone's second weekend.

If you are deciding whether to sell at all: nothing here says you must. A market this fast rewards preparation more than timing. If the house is not ready, September is not better than November.

Three August sales worth knowing

• 2033 Baker Street, Pacific Heights. Listed at $3,995,000, closed at $6,625,000 in five days: $2.63 million over asking, the largest dollar overbid of the month.
• 885 Head Street, Ingleside Terraces. Listed at $1,150,000, closed at $2,305,000: 200% of asking, the largest percentage overbid of the month. Note the list price.
• 570 El Camino Del Mar, Sea Cliff. $9,988,000, cash, seven days. The largest sale of the month.

By the numbers

Reliability: every citywide and type-level row is Strong (30 or more sales) except the two TIC months, which are Directional at 25 and 30 sales. District reads use June through August and are Strong in every district shown.

Frequently asked questions

The same cut for every San Francisco neighborhood, refreshed weekly: Paulo’s Pulse, the research lab.

Sources and further reading

• California Association of Realtors county sales activity, including San Francisco County
• Topic: San Francisco overbidding, the whole question in one place
• Topic: cash buyers in San Francisco
• Issue #17: The Overbid Map Is Not the Heat Map, why west-side list prices are opening bids
• Issue #22: What a Bedroom Costs, the price of each rung
• Selling in San Francisco, starting with whether you should
• How I read the San Francisco market, the method behind these figures

Methodology and sources

Source: POTM Command, governed MLS analytics, 62,740 governed closed sales as of September 4, 2026. Closed sales dated in the named month, parcel-deduplicated, sale-to-list plausibility band applied. Medians throughout; no averages. Cash share counts only sales that reported financing. Inventory, months of supply, pending, new-listing and closed-sale counts are SFAR InfoSparks, San Francisco County, August 2026, all attached and detached homes; the POTM set is larger because it includes two-to-four unit buildings and every source MLS. Year-ago comparisons are August 2025 on the same rule. District and neighborhood reads use June through August so no district sits on a thin month. Data deemed reliable but not guaranteed, subject to change, correction and revision; no claim of 100% accuracy. Paulo does not give legal, tax or financial advice.