POTM Blog Issue #02, June 10, 2026
The Condo Turn
Compass just published its June report on San Francisco, 35 pages of charts through May 2026. I read all of it so you don't have to. The headline is another single-family record, but the real story is the condo market finally turning after six years of declines.
By Paulo Serna, San Francisco Real Estate Agent, Compass | Level Up Group · CA DRE# 02150409 · Published June 10, 2026
Compass released its June 2026 San Francisco report this week, with data through May. Most of it confirms what Issue #01 already showed you. One part changes the picture: the condo charts. Here is the honest read.
Houses, May 2026
$2.2M
median sale price, a new record
18-day average market time · 256 sales
Condos, May 2026
$1.33M
median, up 3% in a year
101.4% of list · 39-day average market time
Houses set a record, again
The May single-family median hit $2.2M, a new record, about 17% above May 2025. The previous high was May 2022. May closed 256 single-family sales, and average market time was 18 days, the fastest pace in five years. Supply explains a lot of it: active single-family inventory has hovered just above 200 listings this spring, roughly half of May 2025's 393. None of this is news if you read Issue #01. It is confirmation from a second data shop.
Why some numbers differ from Issue #01
Sharp readers will notice Issue #01 said 12 days on market and a 9.4% annual price gain, while this report says 18 days and 17%. Neither is wrong. I report median days on market; Compass charts the average, which stale listings drag higher. My 9.4% is a trailing-twelve-month window; their 17% is a single May-over-May comparison, which runs hotter. Inventory counts also move a few percent with pull dates and how each shop defines an active listing; every source shows supply down roughly 35 to 45% from last year. Same market, different yardsticks, same direction.
By the numbers
| Metric | Reading | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Single-family median, May | $2.2M | New record, about 17% above May 2025; prior peak May 2022 |
| Single-family closed sales, May | 256 | Demand still building |
| Single-family days on market | 18 (average) | Fastest pace in five years |
| Single-family active inventory | Just above 200 | 393 in May 2025 |
| Condo median, May | $1.33M | Up 3% in a year, first real gain after years of declines |
| Condo price per square foot | $1,166 | Climbing since January after six years of pressure |
| Condo sold-to-list, May | 101.4% | Above asking again |
| Condo active inventory, May | 584 | 905 a year ago |
| Condo pending sales, May | 305 | 242 a year ago |
| Condo days on market | 39 (average) | Down from last year |
The condo turn is the real story
The condo median reached $1.33M in May, up 3% from a year ago, the first real growth after several flat-to-down years. Price per square foot hit $1,166 and has been climbing since January after six years of downward pressure. Condos sold at 101.4% of list in May, above asking for the first time in a long while. Sales volume is up 14% from 2025, pendings stood at 305 versus 242 last May, and active inventory fell to 584 from 905 a year ago. Market time dropped to 39 days, down from last year. Every one of those lines points the same direction.
What it says about our blocks
The neighborhood tables run on 12-month rolling averages for houses. Central Richmond, my home turf, posted a $2.2M median, up 14.3%, at $1,127 per square foot across 45 sales. Inner Richmond ran $2.96M, up 9.6%. Inner Sunset came in at $2.1M, up 3.7%, West Portal at $2.68M, up 2.1%, and Glen Park at $2.0M, up 0.6%. At the top end, Lake Street and Jordan Park reached $4.6M, up 5.4%, and Sea Cliff jumped 24.8% to $5.85M on just 11 sales, so treat that one as a thin sample. On the condo side, Central Richmond condos sat at $1.43M, essentially flat, at $929 per square foot, while Inner Sunset condos rose 17.4% to $1.375M on 23 sales, another small sample worth watching rather than banking on.
The macro backdrop
Compass chief economist Mike Simonsen presented the macro picture this week, and it sharpens the report. Bay Area job creation is positive for the first time in years, concentrated in higher-income roles, and net migration has turned inbound; Seattle and Austin now send more people to San Francisco than the reverse. Mortgage rates moved from roughly 6% to 6.5% in May on hotter inflation, which would normally cool demand. It has not, because equity markets at new highs are funding buyers whose purchasing power is less rate-sensitive. His caution flag: watch whether inflation or rates near 7% eventually overpower that wealth effect. He declined to predict markets either way.
Two more numbers from his presentation worth keeping. San Francisco two-bedroom rents are running near $5,500, up roughly 20% in a year per Zumper data he cited, which quietly strengthens the buy case, especially for condos. And at the county level, San Francisco sold at about 124% of list in May while most Bay Area counties sat near 100%: the overbid pressure is concentrated in the city itself.
Scoreboard update
Issue #01 called the soft condo market, especially the SoMa and Mission Bay corridor, the city's clearest buyer opportunity. This report shows the citywide condo market crossing back above asking. The discount is narrowing on the charts. I would not call the window closed, the AI-corridor towers are still the soft end of the market, but I would not assume next spring looks like this one either. If a condo was a someday plan, the data says it belongs higher on your list.
AI Corridor Scoreboard
One reading per issue on the city's softest segment, the condos near the new AI offices, so you can watch the turn as it happens.
| Issue | Date | Reading | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| #01 | Jun 7, 2026 | Soft. Only 37 to 43% of SoMa, Mission Bay, and downtown condos sold over asking. | Clearest buyer opportunity in the city. |
| #02 (this issue) | Jun 10, 2026 | Turning at the edges. Citywide condos hit 101.4% of list in May; inventory fell to 584 from 905. The corridor towers remain the soft end. | Window narrowing, not closed. |
What this means for you
Buying a house? Records and 18-day market times mean you compete: clean offer, full underwriting, clear walk-away number. Buying a condo? You still have more leverage than house buyers, but the trend just turned against waiting. Selling a house? This is the strongest seller's setup in years, and preparation still earns the premium. Selling a condo? For the first time since 2020 the tailwind is yours: price to your block's real number and let 101.4% of list do its work. On timing, Simonsen noted pricing still bumps in spring and again in September and October, useful if you are choosing a launch window.
- Condos turned: $1.33M median up 3%, $1,166 per square foot climbing after six years of declines, and 101.4% of list in May.
- Condo supply tightened fast: 584 actives versus 905 last May, with pendings up to 305 from 242.
- Houses set another record: $2.2M May median, 18-day average market time, inventory near half of last year.
- Central Richmond houses led the home turf at +14.3% on a 12-month rolling median of $2.2M.
- Rents are pushing buyers: two-bedrooms near $5,500, up about 20% in a year per Zumper, cited by Simonsen.
- The condo-buyer window is narrowing but not closed; the AI-corridor towers remain the soft end.
This issue is built on the Compass June 2026 report. Download the full 35-page PDF for every chart and neighborhood table.
Methodology and sources
Figures from the June 2026 Compass San Francisco housing market report (Compass via MLS data, through May 2026). Prices are medians unless noted. Neighborhood figures are 12-month rolling averages through May 2026. Macro context from Compass chief economist Mike Simonsen's June 10, 2026 presentation; rent figures via Zumper as cited there. General information, not a forecast or individual advice.
What does this Pulse mean for your block?
Two homes five blocks apart can carry very different risk. Let's talk about your specific segment, no pressure.