Market Pulse
How’s the market in San Francisco, right now.
This page is shared openly with fellow SF agents. If what you are seeing in the field supports or contradicts the working hypothesis, the Feedback tab is exactly for that. Better shared information makes everyone a better advisor.
The city, classified by role
Every subdistrict is placed by its own single-family data (price, overbid intensity, and how house-heavy it is), not by its district as a whole. The top of the market splits in two: Luxury areas price to value and barely overbid, while Prestige areas list low and overbid hard.
Every neighborhood, at a glance
The sparkline carries the shape of the last ten years in the width of a word; the endpoints carry the numbers. Read the level, not the wiggle; single-year counts are small.
Where 2026 stands so far
The market, four ways
Houses vs condos, ten-year price paths, the cash fingerprint, and the top of the market. Pick a view.
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Should a seller bring a listing on now, in the summer, or hold for after Labor Day? Ten and a half years of closings, grouped by the month each one hit the market, say the folklore is mostly wrong, and that the launch date matters more than the season.
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What POTM is
POTM stands for Pulse On Today’s Market. POTM Command is the engine behind Paulo’s Pulse: it pulls San Francisco’s MLS closed-sale records into one consistent dataset that runs back a decade, refreshed each cycle so the figures stay current rather than months old. Every number traces to a specific closed sale, by neighborhood and housing type.
Governed means it runs on fixed rules, not one-off spreadsheets: one source of truth, single-family kept separate from condos and TICs, thin samples flagged, and nothing typed in by hand.
How it works
Each cycle it does the same four things:
- 1Pulls closed-sale records from the San Francisco MLS.
- 2Cleans and de-duplicates them, so a sale counts once and a closed sale stays closed.
- 3Organizes every sale by SFAR subdistrict, property type, and month, a decade deep.
- 4Computes the medians and shares you see here, sale-to-list, price, days on market, and cash, each carried with its sample size so a thin month reads as directional, not fact.
Where AI fits
Claudio is Paulo’s agentic assistant, built on Claude AI. Under Paulo’s direction, Claudio does the heavy lifting: cleaning and reconciling the records, building the maps, charts, and tables, and drafting the first read of what the data shows. The AI makes the work faster and more consistent. It does not decide what is true, and it does not speak for Paulo.
What Claudio does to build and run Paulo’s Pulse:
- Builds and maintains the app: the house-market map, every chart, the sparkline tables, and the interactivity.
- Cleans ten years of governed MLS closed sales into one deduplicated dataset, refreshed each cycle.
- Focuses on the single-family home market, read subdistrict by subdistrict. Condos, townhomes, and TICs enter under The market (Homes vs Condos) and the all-residential lanes.
- Classifies each subdistrict into a market role from its own decade of behavior.
- Keeps measured facts and field observations apart, and labels which is which.
Where accountability sits
Paulo sets the questions, checks every number against its source, and adds the part no dataset carries: what he is actually seeing in live deals. The line this site keeps between measured (what the sales records prove) and observed (what agents see in the field) is his rule, and observed is never dressed up as measured.
Final judgment, interpretation, and accountability are Paulo’s. The AI is a tool; the standard of honesty and the responsibility for every claim are his. If a number here is wrong, it is Paulo’s to correct, which is what the Feedback tab is for.
The exact rules behind every number here, the data sources, definitions, comparison windows, sample-size discipline, and the limits, live on the Methodology page.
Found a bug, a bad number, or a gap?
This guide gets better with your eyes on it. Flag anything that looks wrong: a figure that does not match what you see in the field, a subdistrict misclassified, or a metric you wish existed. It routes straight to Paulo so it can be corrected or built.
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From the POTM Blog