The AI-Era Spring Market

San Francisco is in one of its strongest spring markets in years, with demand surging and inventory down sharply. But the heat is concentrated. Here is the honest read, by the numbers.

Single family is the engine

In May 2026, single-family homes sold at a median of $2.2M, at 124.6% of list price, with 86% closing over asking and a median of 12 days on market. Over the trailing twelve months (June 2025 through May 2026), the single-family median reached $1.77M, up 9.4% year over year, at $1,017 per square foot, with 80% selling over asking and 75% of buyers using financing.

By the numbers

Property type, trailing 12 months	Median price (YoY)	Days on market
Single family	$1.77M (+9.4%)	13
Condo / townhouse	$1.17M (+5.9%)	26
Tenancy in common	$1.06M (-4.1%)	37
Multi-unit (2 to 4+)	$2.0M (+6.7%)	31
May snapshot: single family	$2.2M at 124.6% of list	12 (median)
May snapshot: $5M+ single family	$7.95M median, 36% financed	10

The other property types are firming, not frothing

Same trailing-twelve-month window: condos and townhouses ran a $1.17M median (up 5.9%), 26 days on market, and 43% over asking. TICs came in at $1.06M (down 4.1%), 37 days, 50% over asking. Multi-unit buildings (2 to 4+ units) reached a $2.0M median (up 6.7%) at $539 per square foot.

Supply is the story

Active listings are down about 38% from a year ago across all property types. In May, roughly 290 active single-family listings stood against roughly 290 already pending: nearly everything that comes on market goes under contract. This is a fast-clearing, supply-constrained market, not a demand-driven bubble.

The luxury tier is where AI wealth shows up

At $5M+ single-family (median $7.95M, 10 days on market), only about 36% of buyers used financing, versus roughly two-thirds market-wide. April 2026 had the most $5M+ home sales of any month in our records since 2016, surpassing the 2021 peak. Several recent sales topped $10M within 9 to 10 days.

The AI corridor gap, the nuance most commentary misses

The softest condo markets in the city are SoMa, Mission Bay, and downtown, the very neighborhoods nearest the new AI offices, where only about 37% to 43% of condos sell over asking. AI firms signed 3.4M square feet of office leases in Q1 2026, but that capital has not yet flowed into the high-rise condos beside the towers, and tech employment actually declined in 2025. Today's demand is driven more by capital and equity than by broad hiring.

AI Corridor Scoreboard

One reading per issue on the city's softest segment, the condos near the new AI offices, so you can watch the turn as it happens.

Issue	Date	Reading	Call
#01 (this issue)	Jun 7, 2026	Soft. Only 37 to 43% of SoMa, Mission Bay, and downtown condos sold over asking.	Clearest buyer opportunity in the city.

What this means for you

Buying single family at $1.5M to 3M? Expect to compete: roughly 86% to 89% sell over asking in that band, so come in clean, underwritten, and disciplined about your walk-away number. Looking for room to negotiate? The AI-corridor condos offer real leverage and possible upside if jobs follow the capital. Selling a house? Preparation and correct pricing still earn the overbids. Selling a condo? Price to today's condo market, not to the single-family headline.

Full data, charts, and all 10 districts: the market data resource.

Methodology and sources

Figures derived from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, closed sales 2016 through the issue date. Prices are medians unless noted. Financed and cash shares are of sales with reported financing. General information, not a forecast or individual advice.