The Mid-Year Mark

Today marks the halfway point of 2026. Before the second half runs away from us, it is worth stopping to ask a simple question: what did the first six months of the San Francisco market actually tell us? Not the headlines, the data.

The short answer: this was the most competitive first half San Francisco houses have seen in years, and it was not close. Prices climbed, bidding intensified, and in six of the city's ten districts houses reached their highest sale-to-list for these months since at least 2016. Condos rose too, but in a slower, steadier lane. One market, two speeds, and the gap between them widened all spring.

Houses: a record first half

Start with houses. From January through May, the typical San Francisco single-family home sold for about $2.07 million. A year earlier, that same five-month figure was about $1.70 million. That is a jump of roughly 22% in the median in a single year, and it was not the work of one hot month; it held across the whole stretch.

How homes sold changed even more than the price. In the first five months of 2025, the typical house sold at about 109.6% of its asking price. In the same months of 2026, that climbed to about 121%. Overbidding did not just continue, it accelerated.

Six of ten districts hit their own peak

Here is how broad it was. Measured against each district's own history back to 2016, the median sale-to-list for houses in the first five months of 2026 was the highest on record in six of San Francisco's ten districts. Not the west side alone, and not just one price tier. Much of the city, at once.

The exceptions were Districts 3, 4, 8, and 10, each of which set its competitive peak in an earlier year rather than this spring. District 8, the Pacific Heights, Marina, and Russian Hill corridor at the very top of the price scale, is the clearest of them, having peaked back in 2024. In the other six, this spring was the high-water mark for competition among houses.

Condos: the other speed

Condos tell a quieter version of the same story. The typical condo sold for about $1.30 million in the first five months of 2026, up from about $1.15 million a year earlier, a gain of roughly 13%. Real, but well behind houses.

And where houses sold at nearly 121% of list, condos sold at about 101%, barely over asking. Over the trailing year, houses went over asking 79.7% of the time; condos, 45.5%. The two property types are not running in the same race.

By the numbers

Metric	Houses	Condos
Median sale price	$1,875,000	$1,200,000
Year-over-year price	+13.6%	+4.6%
Sold over asking	79.7%	45.5%
Median sale-to-list	116%	100%
Median days on market	12	21
Paid all cash	30.3%	37.1%
Closed sales, trailing year	2,253	2,393

The top set a record of its own

One more first-half milestone, at the very top. May 2026 recorded more closed sales above $5 million than any single month in San Francisco since at least 2016, and four of the five busiest $5M-plus months on record all landed in the first half of 2026. That end of the market runs on cash, roughly two thirds of those sales close with no loan at all, which is why it can set records on its own schedule. I covered it in detail two issues ago. At the mid-year mark the point is simpler: the top did not sit out the first half, it led part of it.

What the first half means for the second

A few honest reads as we turn into the back half of the year. If you are buying a house, the assumption that summer brings relief has not held. Through the first days of July, houses were still selling in the low-120s percent of list. Plan to actually compete, and build your offer, your timeline, and your contingencies for a market that has not cooled.

If you are buying a condo, this is the calmer lane, and that is an opportunity, not a consolation prize. Near-list pricing and more time to decide are real advantages, and the softest specific segment in the city remains the newer condo towers in District 9, the SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach corridor near the new AI offices. More on that in the scoreboard below.

If you are selling, the first half was a strong window, especially for houses and especially anywhere outside the very top. That strength is measured, not hoped for. But a strong first half is a record of what happened, not a promise about the next six months. Price to the comparables in front of you, not to a spring that may or may not repeat.

The honest caveats

To keep this grounded: the January-to-May comparisons use closed sales in those five months across years, so they are seasonal by design and run hotter than a full-year figure. The district peak reading only counts years with at least seven sales in a district, so the thinnest districts carry the least certainty. These are medians, not averages, and a handful of trophy sales can pull a number. And this is a citywide read, so your own block or building can run hotter or cooler than the curve. The figures are deemed reliable but not guaranteed, and they are general information, not legal, tax, or financial advice.

Halfway through the year, the picture is clear enough to act on: houses had a record-competitive first half, condos rose in a steadier lane, and the gap between them is the story of 2026 so far.

AI Corridor Scoreboard

One reading per issue on the city's softest segment, the condos near the new AI offices, so you can watch the turn as it happens.

Issue	Date	Reading	Call
#01	Jun 7, 2026	Soft. Only 37 to 43% of SoMa, Mission Bay, and downtown condos sold over asking.	Clearest buyer opportunity in the city.
#02	Jun 10, 2026	Turning at the edges. Citywide condos hit 101.4% of list in May; inventory fell to 584 from 905. The corridor towers remain the soft end.	Window narrowing, not closed.
#03	Jun 13, 2026	Still the bottom of the overbid table. Corridor sale-to-list at about 98 to 99% versus 103.6% citywide, trailing year.	Opportunity intact for negotiators.
#04	Jun 17, 2026	Still the soft floor while houses raced ahead. Corridor near 98 to 99% of list versus 103.8% citywide and about 123% for single-family in the last 30 days.	Buyer opportunity holds; the gap to houses only widened.
#05	Jun 21, 2026	Cash, not heat. Corridor condos carry heavier cash than the citywide condo average, about 42% versus 37%, yet still sell near 98.7% of list with only about 20% over asking versus 45% citywide. Cash concentrates here; competition does not.	Negotiating room for financed buyers.
#06	Jun 25, 2026	Still the calm corner while the house middle runs hot. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold right at list, about 100%, with only 35% over asking on 300 sales, against the $1.5M to $3M house band at 122 to 125% of list.	Buyer opportunity holds where the bidding wars are not.
#08	Jul 5, 2026	Still the soft floor even as the top books records. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold near 100% of list with heavy cash and light competition, while $5M+ houses set a decade volume record at about 112% of list on roughly 64% cash. Cash without a crowd here.	Buyer opportunity intact where the crowds are not.
#09 (this issue)	Jul 10, 2026	Still the soft floor at the halfway mark. District 9 condos, SoMa, Mission Bay, and South Beach, sold near 100% of list with only about 36% over asking on roughly 290 sales this year, while citywide houses ran near 121% of list. The widest lane in the city stays open.	Clearest buyer opportunity holds into the second half.

Every sale behind these numbers is live in the market explorer. Filter by property type, price, and window and read the first half of your own neighborhood.

Methodology and sources

Source: POTM Command governed MLS analytics, San Francisco closed sales, readiness READY_FOR_REPORTS. The January-to-May figures compare closed sales in those five months across years, so they are seasonal by design and run hotter than full-year numbers. The district peak reading compares each district's January-to-May median sale-to-list against its own history from 2016 to 2026, counting only years with at least seven sales. The by-the-numbers table uses the trailing twelve months through July 11, 2026. Prices are medians; over-asking share, sale-to-list, and cash share are within each group, and cash share is the share of sales with no reported financing. Data deemed reliable but not guaranteed, subject to change, correction, and revision. General information, not legal, tax, or financial advice.