POTM Blog Issue #04: The Spring Acceleration

Citywide, San Francisco residential sold for about 103.8% of list over the trailing year, across 4,740 closed sales. That headline barely moved. The movement is in the clock.

Read the market by its own clock

Single-family sale-to-list ran about 114.9% over the rolling twelve months. Narrow the window and it climbs: about 123.9% over the last 90 days and 123.3% over the last 30. The share clearing over asking rose too, about 84% in the last 30 days against 78.5% for the year. When the short windows sit above the long one, the market is accelerating. Right now they sit well above it.

Up about 26% from a year ago

This is more than seasonal noise. Over the last 30 days the single-family median was about $2.15M against about $1.70M in the same window a year earlier, roughly 26% higher, with sale-to-list at 123.3% against 110.2% then, and a median of 12 days to sell. My read: easier mortgage rates and thin inventory met steady demand this spring, and houses repriced faster than the annual average can show.

Houses, not condos

This is a single-family story. Over the last 30 days condos sold at about 101.0% of list, barely over asking, on a median near $1.35M, up from 100.0% for the year. Condos are improving, but the gap to houses is widening, not closing. A house and a condo are not the same bet right now.

The top sped up too, on cash

Over the last 90 days, single-family homes at $5M and above closed near 113% of list across 71 sales, about two-thirds in cash, and April logged the most $5M-plus closings of any month in years. Rates matter less at the top, and it shows.

Where it concentrates, and how to see it

The geography held: the west side leads, with District 2, the Sunsets and Parkside, hottest, while the downtown and South Beach condo corridor stays near or just under asking. The live explorer now lets you switch the map between Trend and Heat by property type, price band, and window. Flip it from the 12-month to the 30-day window and the acceleration shows in one click.

What this means for you

Buying a house, especially on the west side: come in clean, fully underwritten, and clear on your walk-away number. Selling a house: preparation and correct pricing let an accelerating market do the work. Buying a condo: you still have room near asking, particularly downtown. Selling a condo: price to your block and your window, not the citywide headline. I am not a lender or tax advisor; for rate locks or tax questions I will point you to the right professional.

By the numbers

Window (ending Jun 15)	Single-family sale-to-list	Median (sample)
Last 30 days	about 123.3%	$2.15M (236 sales)
Last 90 days	about 123.9%	$2.15M (683 sales)
Rolling 12 months	about 114.9%	$1.85M (2,284 sales)
Same 30 days, a year ago	about 110.2%	$1.70M (204 sales)
Condo, last 30 days	about 101.0%	$1.35M (228 sales)
$5M+ single-family, last 90 days	about 113.2%, 67% cash	$7.2M (71 sales)

AI Corridor Scoreboard

One reading per issue on the city's softest segment, the condos near the new AI offices, so you can watch the turn as it happens.

Issue	Date	Reading	Call
#01	Jun 7, 2026	Soft. Only 37 to 43% of SoMa, Mission Bay, and downtown condos sold over asking.	Clearest buyer opportunity in the city.
#02	Jun 10, 2026	Turning at the edges. Citywide condos hit 101.4% of list in May; inventory fell to 584 from 905. The corridor towers remain the soft end.	Window narrowing, not closed.
#03	Jun 13, 2026	Still the bottom of the overbid table. Corridor sale-to-list at about 98 to 99% versus 103.6% citywide, trailing year.	Opportunity intact for negotiators.
#04 (this issue)	Jun 17, 2026	Still the soft floor while houses raced ahead. Corridor near 98 to 99% of list versus 103.8% citywide and about 123% for single-family in the last 30 days.	Buyer opportunity holds; the gap to houses only widened.

Single-family sale-to-list by window, ending June 15, 2026 100% means selling at asking. San Francisco MLS, closed sales.

Houses versus condos, last 30 days Median sale-to-list, window ending June 15, 2026.

Takeaways

The market accelerated into summer: single-family sale-to-list ran about 123% over the last 30 and 90 days against about 115% for the year.
The 30-day single-family median, about $2.15M, is up roughly 26% from a year ago.
Houses are driving it. Condos held near 101%; the house-condo gap is widening.
Luxury sped up on cash: $5M-plus homes near 113% of list, about two-thirds cash, a record April.
The window you read matters as much as the neighborhood. Read your block on the timescale you act on.

Every window, district, neighborhood, and closing behind these numbers is live in the market explorer. Flip it from the 12-month to the 30-day window and the acceleration shows in one click.

Methodology and sources

Figures from POTM Command governed MLS analytics: closed San Francisco MLS sales in rolling windows ending June 15, 2026, readiness READY_FOR_REPORTS. Sale-to-list and prices are medians, shown only where the sample is reliable; the 30 and 90 day single-family windows rest on 236 and 683 closings. Year-over-year compares the same window one year earlier. General information, not a forecast or individual advice.