POTM Blog Issue #03, June 13, 2026
Where the Overbids Are
Across the city, homes sold for about 103.6% of list over the trailing year. That average hides a 33-point spread: the west-side single-family blocks ran 116 to 131% of asking while the downtown and South Beach condo core sold at or below it.
By Paulo Serna, San Francisco Real Estate Agent, Compass | Level Up Group · CA DRE# 02150409 · Published June 13, 2026
Citywide, San Francisco homes sold for about 103.6% of list price over the trailing twelve months through May 2026, across 4,954 closed residential sales. But a citywide average hides where the real competition is. Here is the overbid map, by the numbers.
The west side runs hottest
District 2, the Sunsets and Parkside, led the city at about 123% of list over the trailing year. At the neighborhood level, Outer Sunset topped everything at about 130.7% of list across 77 sales, with Central Sunset near 125.4% (100 sales) and Parkside near 124.5% (160 sales). Glen Park ran about 117.3% (76 sales), Bernal Heights about 116.1% (203 sales), Miraloma Park near 116%, and Excelsior about 114.5% (101 sales). These are not thin samples; each is dozens to more than two hundred closings.
Where you still have room: the downtown core
Districts 8 and 9, which hold Russian Hill, Nob Hill, and the downtown and waterfront towers, were the softest in the city, both right at list near 100%. The softest neighborhoods were Yerba Buena about 97.9% (90 sales), South Beach about 98.5% (274 sales), SoMa about 98.8% (116 sales), Mission Bay about 99.4% (74 sales), and Downtown right at 100% (43 sales). In these markets, offers at or below asking still close.
West side, hottest
124%+
District 2 and the Sunsets led, Outer Sunset at 130.7% of list
Single-family blocks, deepest buyer pools
Downtown corridor, softest
98%
Yerba Buena, South Beach, SoMa, and Mission Bay sold at or below asking
Condo towers near the AI offices
The cheapest blocks overbid hardest
The pattern cuts across price, too. The more affordable single-family blocks overbid the most: Excelsior, at a $1.125M median, ran about 114.5% of list, and Outer Sunset, at a $1.6M median, topped 130%. The priciest addresses overbid the least: Cow Hollow, at a $2.17M median, sat near 101.6% across 87 sales. Competition is fiercest where entry prices are lowest and the buyer pool is deepest. For a concrete example, Parkside homes priced in the $1.5M to $2M band sold at about 134.6% of list over the past year across 71 sales.
The AI Corridor Scoreboard
In Issue #01, I flagged the condos closest to the new AI offices, SoMa, Mission Bay, South Beach, and downtown, as the softest segment in the city. The overbid data confirms it. While the citywide home ran about 103.6% of list and the west side topped 124%, that AI corridor sat at the very bottom: Yerba Buena about 97.9%, South Beach about 98.5%, SoMa about 98.8%, and Mission Bay about 99.4%, all governed readings on samples from 74 to 274 sales. The hiring story I flagged in Issue #01 still has not shown up in the overbids next door. Scoreboard reading: still soft, and still the city's clearest buyer opportunity.
AI Corridor Scoreboard
One reading per issue on the city's softest segment, the condos near the new AI offices, so you can watch the turn as it happens.
| Issue | Date | Reading | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| #01 | Jun 7, 2026 | Soft. Only 37 to 43% of SoMa, Mission Bay, and downtown condos sold over asking. | Clearest buyer opportunity in the city. |
| #02 | Jun 10, 2026 | Turning at the edges. Citywide condos hit 101.4% of list in May; inventory fell to 584 from 905. The corridor towers remain the soft end. | Window narrowing, not closed. |
| #03 (this issue) | Jun 13, 2026 | Still the bottom of the overbid table. Corridor sale-to-list at about 98 to 99% versus 103.6% citywide, trailing year. | Opportunity intact for negotiators. |
One reminder on property type
Multi-unit buildings citywide traded right at list, about 100% across 721 sales, a reminder that the overbid story is a single-family story. The west-side heat is a houses story; the soft downtown core is a condo story. The citywide 103.6% is the blend of both, which is exactly why your block and your property type matter more than the headline.
What this means for you
Buying on the west side or in Bernal? You are competing against 114 to 131% of list, so come in clean, fully underwritten, and clear on your walk-away number before you fall in love. Want negotiating room? The downtown and South Beach corridor is where offers near or below asking still close, with possible upside if jobs ever follow the capital. Selling a west-side home? Preparation and correct pricing let the market do the rest. Selling a condo downtown? Price to your block's real number, not to the citywide overbid headline.
By the numbers
| Market | Sale-to-list | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Outer Sunset | about 130.7% | 77 sales |
| Central Sunset | about 125.4% | 100 sales |
| Parkside | about 124.5% | 160 sales |
| Glen Park | about 117.3% | 76 sales |
| Bernal Heights | about 116.1% | 203 sales |
| Excelsior | about 114.5% | 101 sales |
| Citywide residential | about 103.6% | 4,954 closed sales |
| Mission Bay | about 99.4% | 74 sales |
| South Beach | about 98.5% | 274 sales |
| Yerba Buena | about 97.9% | 90 sales |
| Multi-unit, citywide | about 100.0% | 721 sales |
| Parkside, $1.5M to $2M tier | about 134.6% | 71 sales |
- The west side overbids hardest: Outer Sunset, Central Sunset, and Parkside all ran 124 to 131% of list over the past year.
- Citywide residential sat near 103.6%; the downtown, South Beach, and SoMa condo core is the only place at or below asking.
- The cheapest single-family blocks overbid the most; the priciest, and the downtown condos, overbid the least.
- AI Corridor Scoreboard: still soft. The overbid data confirms Issue #01 and marks the clearest buyer opportunity.
- Your number depends on your block and your property type, not the citywide headline.
Every neighborhood, district, and closing behind these numbers is live in the market explorer, refreshed each cycle from governed MLS data.
Methodology and sources
Figures from POTM Command governed MLS analytics: rolling twelve months of closed Residential sales through May 2026, San Francisco MLS. Sale-to-list and prices are medians. Residential folds single-family, condo, and TIC together at the published neighborhood grain, so no property-type split is implied within a neighborhood number. Citywide is the published median across 4,954 closings; neighborhood figures are governed published medians shown only where the sample is reliable, with thin samples excluded. General information, not a forecast or individual advice.
What does this Pulse mean for your block?
Two homes five blocks apart can carry very different risk. Let's talk about your specific segment, no pressure.