POTM Blog Issue #05: Who's Paying Cash

Across San Francisco, about a third of homes that sold in the last twelve months closed with cash rather than a mortgage. That is measured the strict way: out of sales where the financing was actually reported, one in three was all cash. The common assumption is that cash buying is a billionaire-and-mansion thing. The data says otherwise. Cash is spread across every price tier, and it is heavy enough at the bottom to matter to ordinary buyers.

Who's paying cash, by price tier Cash share of sales, all property types. Dashed line is the citywide average for the selected window.

Last 90 days, 1,555 closings. Every tier clears Strong reliability in all three windows. The $3M to $5M tier is the most window-sensitive, so read it on 90 days or 12 months and treat 30 days as the live pulse.

Read the staircase from the bottom

Below two million dollars, where most San Franciscans actually buy, cash still runs close to a third. That is not a fringe. That is most likely one of the other offers on your starter home. The pattern holds whether you look at the last 30 days, the last 90, or the full year, so this is a standing feature of the market, not a one-month blip.

By the numbers

Price tier	30-day	90-day	12-month
Under $1M	24.0%	30.2%	30.3%
$1M to $2M	28.8%	28.6%	27.9%
$2M to $3M	32.4%	34.1%	33.2%
$3M to $5M	37.5%	54.1%	51.4%
$5M+	65.0%	64.5%	62.8%
Citywide	31.4%	35.2%	33.0%

Where a loan still wins the day

Cash is not magic. It wins on certainty and speed, not always on price. A cash offer skips the loan contingency and can close fast, which a seller values when two bids are close. But a strong financed offer, with real money down, a clean pre-approval, and a tight timeline, still wins constantly, especially under three million dollars where the financed buyer is the majority of the pool. The steep part of the staircase is above three million. There, more than half of sales are cash, and at five million and up it is nearly two thirds. If you are shopping the top of the market, plan for cash competition as the baseline, not the exception.

The split most buyers miss: house versus condo

Here is the part that changes strategy. The cash share at the entry and middle of the market flips depending on what you are buying.

Starter house, under $2M

~23%

of sales paid cash

single family · a financed offer competes more cleanly

Starter condo, under $2M

~33%

of sales paid cash

cash shows up more often here

A financed buyer competes more cleanly for a starter single-family home than for a comparable condo, where cash shows up more often. If you are financing and flexible on property type, that is a real, usable edge. At the very top, condos go almost entirely cash, but those are thin counts and we treat them as directional, not a headline.

What I would do with this

If you are buying with a loan, do not let the cash narrative talk you out of the market. Know your tier. Under two million, build the strongest financed offer you can, because the odds are you are competing with other financed buyers, not a wall of cash. Above three million, expect cash across the table and structure accordingly.

If you are selling, this is why a financed offer should not be dismissed on sight. The right financed buyer, well qualified and well structured, often nets you the same certainty for a better price. Want your block read specifically? Cash patterns vary by neighborhood and price point. I am glad to pull your exact tier and area before you write an offer.

AI Corridor Scoreboard

One reading per issue on the city's softest segment, the condos near the new AI offices, so you can watch the turn as it happens.

Issue	Date	Reading	Call
#01	Jun 7, 2026	Soft. Only 37 to 43% of SoMa, Mission Bay, and downtown condos sold over asking.	Clearest buyer opportunity in the city.
#02	Jun 10, 2026	Turning at the edges. Citywide condos hit 101.4% of list in May; inventory fell to 584 from 905. The corridor towers remain the soft end.	Window narrowing, not closed.
#03	Jun 13, 2026	Still the bottom of the overbid table. Corridor sale-to-list at about 98 to 99% versus 103.6% citywide, trailing year.	Opportunity intact for negotiators.
#04	Jun 17, 2026	Still the soft floor while houses raced ahead. Corridor near 98 to 99% of list versus 103.8% citywide and about 123% for single-family in the last 30 days.	Buyer opportunity holds; the gap to houses only widened.
#05 (this issue)	Jun 21, 2026	Cash, not heat. Corridor condos carry heavier cash than the citywide condo average, about 42% versus 37%, yet still sell near 98.7% of list with only about 20% over asking versus 45% citywide. Cash concentrates here; competition does not.	Negotiating room for financed buyers.

Takeaways

If you are financing under $2M, you are not automatically outgunned. Roughly seven in ten buyers in your range still used a loan.
Cash is strongest at the top. Above $3M more than half of sales were cash; above $5M nearly two thirds.
Property type matters more than most expect. A financed offer competes more cleanly for a starter house than for a starter condo.

Built on the live POTM market engine. See the methodology and current readings.

Methodology and sources

Source: POTM Command governed MLS analytics, windows ending June 19, 2026. Cash and financed shares use the reported denominator: sales where buyer financing was actually reported; unreported sales are excluded. Sale-to-list outliers above 200% and quarantined rows are excluded. Medians unless noted. Data deemed reliable but not guaranteed, subject to change, correction, and revision. General information, not legal, tax, or financial advice.